Is there ever a time that Fragmentation can be good?

[pc747]

There may be some good to fragmentation, more after the break.​

 

[pc747]

I know this may sound sacrilegious but before you burn me at the stake let me ask that you put your pitch forks down long enough for me to explain. We love to be the first to everything: first to get a phone, first to root, first to a custom rom but being first isnt always great. Those of us who bought the thunderbolt when it first came out got to experience the joy (sarcasm) of paying to be a beta tester and we paid dearly for it. Whether it be battery life issues or connection issues we were first to experience it all. One of the issues with new builds whether it be 4.3, 4.4, 5.0, etc is that it takes time for app developers to catch up to the latest software and along the way you can expect bugs. When they first went to 4.3 there were apps that worked great on 4.1 but was horrible on 4.3. Those of us who love to tinker we will just move on to another rom or find a tweak to make things work but customers who do not tinker or know what a rom is will be angry when an update cause one of their favorite apps to not work and when that happens they are not going to google or the manufacturer they are going straight to the carrier. The past few days Apple updated to ios 7 and people either loved it or hated it. Those who were new to apple or not as familiar with the iphone hated it because things were moved around and looked "different". So imagine if after an update caused certain apps to not work people will turn on the manufacturer. So I can understand to a point for manufacturers to not keep up with Google and instead wait for developers to allow their app software along with manufacturer software to catch up with the newest build so that the user experience is to the standard that customers expect when they bought the device. As an alternative I would love to see manufacturers allow users to download google experience software so those that prefer the latest and greatest along with vanilla android can have a choice with the understanding that they will be giving up manufacturer features that come with their software.

Thoughts?

 

[newbroot83]

I could go for that. I dont use verizon apps anyway

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[TOMMYBOT]

Would love to try that

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[tjk629]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Apple have a "beta" version of their OS a few months before public release, and ways to develop on it? I'm not sure if Google does that or not, I kind of think they do with the SDK.

Then again, when Apple launches an iOS update, the majority of their popular devices get it. iOS7 covers iPhone 4 and up, and from what I've seen (just in public) the majority of iPhone users have a 4 or 4S. So, iOS app devs have to have their stuff work, because everyone is getting it. While on Android, you are not getting it outside of the NEXUS devices for a couple more months. So, what's the hurry?

OH, and to sidetrack for a moment. I cannot believe that people are complaining about iOS7. I saw a list of the top complaints, and you can "fix" them or whatever by just going into SETTINGS. Yeah, all those issues and problems, you can change it just by going into settings. And it's not even going super deep into them. IMO, only complain if you cannot change them, or you have to start pushing files into system through a terminal

 

[MissionImprobable]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Apple have a "beta" version of their OS a few months before public release, and ways to develop on it? I'm not sure if Google does that or not, I kind of think they do with the SDK.

Then again, when Apple launches an iOS update, the majority of their popular devices get it. iOS7 covers iPhone 4 and up, and from what I've seen (just in public) the majority of iPhone users have a 4 or 4S. So, iOS app devs have to have their stuff work, because everyone is getting it. While on Android, you are not getting it outside of the NEXUS devices for a couple more months. So, what's the hurry?

OH, and to sidetrack for a moment. I cannot believe that people are complaining about iOS7. I saw a list of the top complaints, and you can "fix" them or whatever by just going into SETTINGS. Yeah, all those issues and problems, you can change it just by going into settings. And it's not even going super deep into them. IMO, only complain if you cannot change them, or you have to start pushing files into system through a terminal

My friend's point of view is that iOS 7 is "trying to be Android." Shes had an iPhone for a while now and doesn't do much more than text, email, FB, etc, so all the changes really do nothing for her. It's funny too seeing how many people I run into complaining about having to open up the apps pane and close out apps because of how iOS handles multi-tasking at this point. Apple certainly needs to figure out what direction it's going to go.

 

[mountainbikermark]

My friend's point of view is that iOS 7 is "trying to be Android." Shes had an iPhone for a while now and doesn't do much more than text, email, FB, etc, so all the changes really do nothing for her. It's funny too seeing how many people I run into complaining about having to open up the apps pane and close out apps because of how iOS handles multi-tasking at this point. Apple certainly needs to figure out what direction it's going to go.

It's going in a periscope view of the outside world from inside the walled garden. Their definition of fragmentation.
For me fragmentation was bad enough with skinned devices but now there's ranging from 2.3 to 4.3 on my devices creating even more frustration with Note2 than just apps . I'm hoping the rumor that I can put 4.4 across my lineup is true.

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[squeak]

If there were no fragmentation then apps would be fixed very quickly. The fact that the majority of devices don't see the latest version for weeks or months, if they see it at all, doesn't give app developers tons of incentive to update quickly. I'm not complaining though, I try to select devices that I expect to get updates in a reasonably timely manner, and new versions of Android come often enough that they are usually lots of minor things that I don't mind waiting a few weeks for. To me it's part of the excitement of Android.

 

[pc747]

If there were no fragmentation then apps would be fixed very quickly. The fact that the majority of devices don't see the latest version for weeks or months, if they see it at all, doesn't give app developers tons of incentive to update quickly. I'm not complaining though, I try to select devices that I expect to get updates in a reasonably timely manner, and new versions of Android come often enough that they are usually lots of minor things that I don't mind waiting a few weeks for. To me it's part of the excitement of Android.

Except google releases the sdk when they release the new build. So I think a lot of it has to do with the first few releases on the new build have a few bugs that eventually gets weeded out. I do think that the app developers are catching up much faster. Manufacturers though ..but at the same time I sort of see the manufacturers stand point. We went from 4.1 to 4.2.2, 4.3, and now 4.4 is around the corner. With a nexus or g.e device updating is easier vs a skinned device where the manufacturer has to make sure all their features work on the new build. That takes time so to get everything set up for one build only to see Google already on to the next software has to be frustrating to oem engineers.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I'm one to suggest that fragmentation has it's benefits as well, and in the worst case it can actually be extremely damaging to the economy. We are in a massive mobile technology bubble right now, and it's going to pop. Consider this, every android phone has the same software updated at the same time. Where's the incentive to upgrade anymore? Your 3 year old phone is renewed and optimized on the latest and greatest. It removes the 2yr cycle of upgrade and begins to push it toward the PC upgrade cycle instead, I'm on a 7yr old laptop running windows 7 just fine, and I won't be upgrading anytime soon either, it's just not worth it. But if I was stuck on Windows XP I'd be rocking a new PC guaranteed. I think if you could take the juggernaut of the smartphone industry and remove it from the worlds equation it would take us to a great depression almost instantly. The mobile tech is the only industry that is thriving globally and the global economy depends on it, when the industry slows (as it will and/or is) it will take the economy with it. There are emerging markets to offset this to some degree, but once the US and then Japan, and China's economy goes, they all go. The smartphone market is worth something like $150 BILLION dollars, and that is a lot of jobs folks. There's something like half a million jobs in the US alone just developing apps and games for mobile. And it will be a chain reaction as well, because the huge companies that are involved with phones are also into many other areas of tech, their capital will diminish and they'll stop funding new research, jobs will vanish in downsizing such as BB is experiencing now industry wide. Consider Google...they're massive. Google's hands are in a thousand cookie jars at once, but if their revenue were to be sliced in half I'm willing to bet they'll stop eating so many cookies. Health, self driving cars, Glasses, future tech...essentially the entire tech industry will take a huge hit.

And that's just Google. Their must be 10,000 other players in mobile, and thousands of venture capitalists as well that rely on strong numbers to maintain growth. And ironically enough I think the only company that wouldn't be affected by such a turn down is Apple.

 

[MissionImprobable]

I'm one to suggest that fragmentation has it's benefits as well, and in the worst case it can actually be extremely damaging to the economy. We are in a massive mobile technology bubble right now, and it's going to pop. Consider this, every android phone has the same software updated at the same time. Where's the incentive to upgrade anymore? Your 3 year old phone is renewed and optimized on the latest and greatest. It removes the 2yr cycle of upgrade and begins to push it toward the PC upgrade cycle instead, I'm on a 7yr old laptop running windows 7 just fine, and I won't be upgrading anytime soon either, it's just not worth it. But if I was stuck on Windows XP I'd be rocking a new PC guaranteed. I think if you could take the juggernaut of the smartphone industry and remove it from the worlds equation it would take us to a great depression almost instantly. The mobile tech is the only industry that is thriving globally and the global economy depends on it, when the industry slows (as it will and/or is) it will take the economy with it. There are emerging markets to offset this to some degree, but once the US and then Japan, and China's economy goes, they all go. The smartphone market is worth something like $150 BILLION dollars, and that is a lot of jobs folks. There's something like half a million jobs in the US alone just developing apps and games for mobile. And it will be a chain reaction as well, because the huge companies that are involved with phones are also into many other areas of tech, their capital will diminish and they'll stop funding new research, jobs will vanish in downsizing such as BB is experiencing now industry wide. Consider Google...they're massive. Google's hands are in a thousand cookie jars at once, but if their revenue were to be sliced in half I'm willing to bet they'll stop eating so many cookies. Health, self driving cars, Glasses, future tech...essentially the entire tech industry will take a huge hit.

And that's just Google. Their must be 10,000 other players in mobile, and thousands of venture capitalists as well that rely on strong numbers to maintain growth. And ironically enough I think the only company that wouldn't be affected by such a turn down is Apple.

I'm not sure I can agree with you about Apple. Even with their less than expected earnings a times, a large portion of their profits relies on the mobile industry. What does Apple have going for it besides aesthetics? The ease of use between various platforms. There are plenty of people who buy multiple Apple devices because of the ease of integration between systems. If the mobile market falls off it hurts all the players. Apple saw a far larger surge in profits from the iPad and iPhone than from their computer hardware. There's a much higher profit margin to be had there, and as you mentioned yourself, there's a lot more incentive as things sit now to upgrade mobile devices regularly, not PCs and laptops.

How many stories do we see about Apple suing various PC manufacturers? How many stories do we see about them suing mobile market competitors? That also speaks well as to where Apple needs to butter its bread to survive.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I'm not sure I can agree with you about Apple. Even with their less than expected earnings a times, a large portion of their profits relies on the mobile industry. What does Apple have going for it besides aesthetics? The ease of use between various platforms. There are plenty of people who buy multiple Apple devices because of the ease of integration between systems. If the mobile market falls off it hurts all the players. Apple saw a far larger surge in profits from the iPad and iPhone than from their computer hardware. There's a much higher profit margin to be had there, and as you mentioned yourself, there's a lot more incentive as things sit now to upgrade mobile devices regularly, not PCs and laptops.

How many stories do we see about Apple suing various PC manufacturers? How many stories do we see about them suing mobile market competitors? That also speaks well as to where Apple needs to butter its bread to survive.

However this is irrelevant in this situation. The market is going to slow because of Android and it's corresponding design issues, in this case fragmentation, as well as local economies naturally fluctuating. Apple only has to combat the economic fluctuation because they have no fragmentation. Apple already updates all their devices ubiquitously. All the things that their are to fear from the industry Apple is designed to survive because it's already worst case. Their followers will buy regardless of the rest of the market or competition.

The only thing that will ever kill Apple is social stigma. Once having an iPhone is ubiquitously looked down upon by the general public, then they'll struggle. We're not there yet.

 

[squeak]

I'm one to suggest that fragmentation has it's benefits as well, and in the worst case it can actually be extremely damaging to the economy. We are in a massive mobile technology bubble right now, and it's going to pop. Consider this, every android phone has the same software updated at the same time. Where's the incentive to upgrade anymore? Your 3 year old phone is renewed and optimized on the latest and greatest. It removes the 2yr cycle of upgrade and begins to push it toward the PC upgrade cycle instead, I'm on a 7yr old laptop running windows 7 just fine, and I won't be upgrading anytime soon either, it's just not worth it. But if I was stuck on Windows XP I'd be rocking a new PC guaranteed. I think if you could take the juggernaut of the smartphone industry and remove it from the worlds equation it would take us to a great depression almost instantly. The mobile tech is the only industry that is thriving globally and the global economy depends on it, when the industry slows (as it will and/or is) it will take the economy with it. There are emerging markets to offset this to some degree, but once the US and then Japan, and China's economy goes, they all go. The smartphone market is worth something like $150 BILLION dollars, and that is a lot of jobs folks. There's something like half a million jobs in the US alone just developing apps and games for mobile. And it will be a chain reaction as well, because the huge companies that are involved with phones are also into many other areas of tech, their capital will diminish and they'll stop funding new research, jobs will vanish in downsizing such as BB is experiencing now industry wide. Consider Google...they're massive. Google's hands are in a thousand cookie jars at once, but if their revenue were to be sliced in half I'm willing to bet they'll stop eating so many cookies. Health, self driving cars, Glasses, future tech...essentially the entire tech industry will take a huge hit.

And that's just Google. Their must be 10,000 other players in mobile, and thousands of venture capitalists as well that rely on strong numbers to maintain growth. And ironically enough I think the only company that wouldn't be affected by such a turn down is Apple.

I agree with most of that, but I can't say that I agree with an economic downturn being kick off by slack smartphone sales. I do think the economy will get much worse before it gets much better but I think that as smartphone sales begin to slack off what ever the newest trend is will take it's place, similar to how desktop sales slacked and laptop sales began to pick up. Also consider how iPods and mp3 players were the rage and then gave way to smartphones, how many people do you know who have purchased an mp3 player in the past few years? People in general, but especially techies, will always find something that they have to have and are willing to drop a reasonable amount of money on. It may be wearable tech, it may be something that's yet to be invented, but when smartphones begin to last more than 2 years people will find something else to buy.

 

[MissionImprobable]

However this is irrelevant in this situation. The market is going to slow because of Android and it's corresponding design issues, in this case fragmentation, as well as local economies naturally fluctuating. Apple only has to combat the economic fluctuation because they have no fragmentation. Apple already updates all their devices ubiquitously. All the things that their are to fear from the industry Apple is designed to survive because it's already worst case. Their followers will buy regardless of the rest of the market or competition.

The only thing that will ever kill Apple is social stigma. Once having an iPhone is ubiquitously looked down upon by the general public, then they'll struggle. We're not there yet.

Well I am willing to say that the social aspect will come into play with the new 5c. There was a decent segment who bought the iPhone as a status symbol, same as with iBooks, etc, and the lower cost versions are certainly going to take away from that. I don't even like iPhones, but I do tune in to see what Apple brings to the table each year and the newest release just isn't on par with the polish of their old one size fits all model. Every time commercials came on for the 5c during the game last night I couldn't help but think how underwhelming it is in every way.

And I wasn't so much saying that fragmentation is an issue for Apple, I was saying that if the mobile market as a whole takes a downturn then it will hurt Apple as well.

 

[pc747]

Well I am willing to say that the social aspect will come into play with the new 5c. There was a decent segment who bought the iPhone as a status symbol, same as with iBooks, etc, and the lower cost versions are certainly going to take away from that. I don't even like iPhones, but I do tune in to see what Apple brings to the table each year and the newest release just isn't on par with the polish of their old one size fits all model. Every time commercials came on for the 5c during the game last night I couldn't help but think how underwhelming it is in every way.

And I wasn't so much saying that fragmentation is an issue for Apple, I was saying that if the mobile market as a whole takes a downturn then it will hurt Apple as well.

I have been vocal about my opinions about the 5c, but as i begin to look more into it, that may be over exaggeration on my part. You put an otterbox case on it, which many do, and the plastic "feel" is non existent (well except the fact the otterbox is plastic). Apple is going to be alright as they do enough to keep their loyal fan base coming back and the simplicity of the os makes the jump to the smartphone much easier for those who are not considered tech savy. Add to that more and more companies coming off the blackberry are turning to Apple for their business solutions, reason why Samsung is moving to a more locked down and secure software (Samsung Knox). And on the tablet side companies turn to the ipad, Airlines are supplying pilots with ipads as the weight of the manuals are taken into account with fuel costs so going to a light ipad is worth it for them financially. So apple is not going anywhere anytime soon.

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