Summer of 2010: Android's Last Hurrah?

[SixStringTheory]

Threads like this would be a lot shorter if posters actually read the article upon which the thread is based.

In general, authors shouldn't be blamed for headline writers' work. The article does not say that the Android O/S has "peaked." What is says is...

"...It’s unlikely that Google will be able to maintain the breakneck pace of Android’s rise in the face of growing competition..."

"...The astonishing rise of Android phones from 0.7 million a year ago to 10.6 million phones as of the end of June has proven to be one of the biggest strategic moves in tech since, well, since Apple decided to get into the phone business.

But that breakneck dash was at a pace that Google has no chance of repeating ever again..."


That is almost certainly true. It doesn't mean that Android devices won't continue to proliferate. It does mean that an an annual growth rate of 1400% won't happen again.

You're right. Almost certainly, 1400% growth won't happen again. But the intent of the article is still at least a little unclear or misleading.

It's definitely unlikely that Android will see the growth it's seen over the past year. But the guy says "android has peaked". What does he mean? Does he mean its absolute market share has reached its apex and it will lose share from here on out? That's a reasonable conclusion for someone to draw from his short article.

Does it only mean its growth has peaked? If so does this guy say that he thinks its growth will reverse and people will leave Android? does he think they'll maintain competitive or dominant growth rates? He doesn't really say. He also gives the reason for this "peak" being competition. Is that true? Or is it just general market saturation?

Any Android fan(boy) will no doubt get defensive over the headline, and most will remain that way after reading the article. I don't really blame them. I can't tell what the motive or the reasoning behind the article is. It's pretty poorly written like most tech blogs, and he was probably hoping to at least annoy Android fanboys so they complain about the article and get him more pageviews.

 

[Ridley]

I would be nice if the companies (all of them) stopped focusing on the phones so much and started beefing up their networks' capacity to handle all this stuff. They all need to be more aggressive in imrpoving call quality and network speed.

 

[keiichi25]

I would be nice if the companies (all of them) stopped focusing on the phones so much and started beefing up their networks' capacity to handle all this stuff. They all need to be more aggressive in imrpoving call quality and network speed.

You do realize, that not all companies are directly tied to certain things. Such as the people who are developing mobile phones are directly tied to the people who provide the mobile network.

If anything, the people who need to be aggressive in improving network speeds are the carriers and communication companies that are, strangely enough, not even directly TIED to creating phones.

Call quality is also not directly tied to said carriers, as it is how the call is processed by the mobile devices, again, not directly tied to the carriers.

While Carriers who put out the firmware to their devices they support, again, they are taking a current firmware from the providers of those phones and only tweaking certain parts to work with their locked down hardware, hardware that was provided by the people who provide them the firmware in the first place.

Going back to the original point of this thread. I would have to agree, the title of the article is misleading and giving the wrong premise of the article, which also prompts people to go, "Yea right..." It is the reason why, when Droid first came out and I was posting here... Don't consider the Droid to be the iPhone killer as people make it out to be.

People have to understand that impressions like that is what makes or breaks a story. If anything, the article is probably trying to get people to stop for a moment and not consider Android OS to be the 'greatest thing since slice bread'. Although the wording of it failed horribly in giving the impression that what they really wanted was Android's Sprinter is now slowing down.

The thing of it all, though, the argument is a bit weak on the simple fact that the sales are going to be a little twitchy now as we are reaching saturation. iPhone pushed the Smartphone for all, Blackberry targeted mostly business and then later the general public, but from my own experience with the BB Storm, their attempt at hitting the similar market, fell flat mostly because the interface was a bit cludgy and the apps behind it were tedious and painful to setup. iPhone excelled at it and made it simple for a lot of the non-technical users to enjoy.

The Droid is making a fantastic outgoing to the normal users as the iPhone alternative, but more to the point, it had Verizon's Viral Marketing that made the Droid appealing. Don't forget, Android OS has been out with the Google G1 and MyTouch series and it was advertised prior to the Verizon Droid Viral Campaign. The only reason it failed so horribly to be taken notice was how it presented itself and how it would have ended up as a "Yet another lame phone branding" that was have all come to know and love.

The Verizon Droid commercials, at the beginning, hit the nail on what got people wanted to get it. It compared itself to the popular iPhone and pointed out things it could do that the iPhone could not and then appealed to those of us who just didn't like the iPhone in general principal by showing us what other things it can do and offer.

To this day, I will swear that I would never get an iPhone due to AT&T, won't get an iPhone because of the terribad design (Not counting the most recent antenna issue) with regards to a few points. I would also not really get a Blackberry for a personal phone due to how I have used three of the Blackberries in a business environment and finding them adequate to a certain level, but on a personal level finding them horrible and not very useful.

The Droid based phone, based on the commercial, seeing youtube vids about what some of the features are and then actually playing with one on my lunch time in one of the verizon stores sold me to getting one.

While I may sound like a Droid Fanboy, it is simply the Droid does what I wanted in a smartphone and gave me an alternative that the iPhone could not.

 

[jsh1120]

Threads like this would be a lot shorter if posters actually read the article upon which the thread is based.

In general, authors shouldn't be blamed for headline writers' work. The article does not say that the Android O/S has "peaked." What is says is...

"...It’s unlikely that Google will be able to maintain the breakneck pace of Android’s rise in the face of growing competition..."

"...The astonishing rise of Android phones from 0.7 million a year ago to 10.6 million phones as of the end of June has proven to be one of the biggest strategic moves in tech since, well, since Apple decided to get into the phone business.

But that breakneck dash was at a pace that Google has no chance of repeating ever again..."


That is almost certainly true. It doesn't mean that Android devices won't continue to proliferate. It does mean that an an annual growth rate of 1400% won't happen again.

You're right. Almost certainly, 1400% growth won't happen again. But the intent of the article is still at least a little unclear or misleading.

It's definitely unlikely that Android will see the growth it's seen over the past year. But the guy says "android has peaked". What does he mean? Does he mean its absolute market share has reached its apex and it will lose share from here on out? That's a reasonable conclusion for someone to draw from his short article.

Does it only mean its growth has peaked? If so does this guy say that he thinks its growth will reverse and people will leave Android? does he think they'll maintain competitive or dominant growth rates? He doesn't really say. He also gives the reason for this "peak" being competition. Is that true? Or is it just general market saturation?

Any Android fan(boy) will no doubt get defensive over the headline, and most will remain that way after reading the article. I don't really blame them. I can't tell what the motive or the reasoning behind the article is. It's pretty poorly written like most tech blogs, and he was probably hoping to at least annoy Android fanboys so they complain about the article and get him more pageviews.

Actually, the author of the article probably didn't say that Android growth had "peaked." It's common for the headline of an article to be written by someone other than the author. The purpose of the headline is to attract a reader, not to summarize the content.

My own feeling is that there is probably not room for more than three (or possibly four) major o/s's in the marketplace. Apple isn't leaving; neither is Android. That leaves three major o/s initiatives to fight for the remaining one or two spots.

 

[huskerkate]

that article is full of more speculation and guesses than all of the "when will Froyo come out" threads this summer. if the intent was to say that Android will not duplicate its tenfold increase in units this coming year, then i would probably agree (unless the LTE units are off the hook ).

but if the intent was to say that Android's market share will be significantly undercut by other OS's, i strongly disagree. given the advancements in Android's OS, and the proliferation of apps and support, it seems to me that before Android will lose noticeable market share, the new OS's are going to have to do more than just be a "competitive alternative" - they're going to need to blow the doors off Android. and i don't see that happening...

 

[SixStringTheory]

You can't forget how many corporations have a lot invested in BES and BlackBerry devices being deployed to thousands of employees. They don't really care if Android is cooler. They're not leaving RIM anytime soon and will always have a huge advantage because of that.

On a consumer level it's a lot different. But they're basically being subsidized by corporate relations right now.

 

[dwagner88]

I don't get why so many people take this format war personally. I couldn't care less who "wins". I'm gonna buy into the platform that best suits my needs. Right now, that is Android. I would happily switch to something better for me when it comes along.

 

[Rindaen]

I have only used the Droid X for 3 weeks now so Still new to the OS.
I like the phone and what it can do, Dont care to much for root. I have to many much higher prioity items in my life to play around with root/jailbreak. I simply dont feel I should have to hack a device for it to perform the actions I need or want.

If/when the iPhone comes to Verizon I will most certainly be in line.
and the Droid X will be on Ebay.
Apple Products have served me very well.
Phone , Laptop, etc ...

 

[darkmatter]

IMO, the biggest phone on the horizon is the psp phone. If sony can really deliver with that thing, we just might finally have an "iphone killer"....and supposedly its running android 3.0