Android: The new king of the mobile castle

[czerdrill]

what you fail to realize (and continue to fail to realize) is that success doesn't just come from branding and marketing. if it did, iphone would be an epic fail. the reason they sell is because people think "iphone i have to have that!!!" without knowing anything about the phone, about specs, about comparisons to android...

LOL, where have I shown that I don't understand that extremely well? You continue to overrate this effect. Because the simple and obvious fact is everyone doesn't have to have the IPhone and, in fact, are making other choices. Millions are buying Android. Millions more don't even have smartphones. That's part of a maturing market that becomes commoditized that IPhone has little interest in competing for.

here's the part of the quote that you left off...

what they do know is people moonwalk in the commercials and that "there's an app for that"...and then when they get said iphone they upgrade it because it's a good phone.

the majority of consumers by phones without knowing anything about them...as much as youd like to believe that android users are superhumans who have all the knowledge in the world and clearly chose the better OS, it's not true. people bought android because verizon marketed that thing as an iphone killer and the commercials were cool as hell haha...same reason people bought iphone, because it was revolutionary and changed mobile communication forever.

now for my above quote, people stay with android because they're loyal to it, and the phones have great features and choice. people stay with iphone because they're loyal to it and it's the most polished phone out there (your fanboyism prevents you from admitting that, but its true). if it wasn't true, there would be no need for every new phone that comes out to be branded "the iphone killer"...hell the LG Voyager was called an iphone killer at one point haha...clearly it wasnt

Millions are buying Android.

Second time you've said that irrelevant statement. Millions are buying iPhone too (oh yeah that's right, 80% are upgrades so they somehow don't "count"

...you're in for a severe disappointment when 80% start upgrading their android phones and android doesn't get 97% new users every year lol

 

[kodiak799]

you can't seriously think that Google is sitting around going "whew we made it! the apple threat is officially mitigated. In a couple of years we should be the mobile masters!!!" Google knows android is not as good as apple, and apple knows that too. android has far more many things to improve on then apple does. you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat?

You really don't have a clue about what is going on here.

A) Google is going after the PC OS, Apple is just in the way of that goal (well, not so much anymore) as the means through leveraging mobile. The market shares are neck-and-neck, so Android HAS made it. And, gee, now they are turning their sites on RIM and the corporate market.

Apple simply can't dominate the market because IOS can't compete with free and open, and Apple would never go that route. Again, look at the PC market - Mac has less than 5%. IOS could be a major player as one of two or three, maybe four, dominant OS's, but there's no money in it when Android is free. And then it's all about the handsets which are becoming increasingly commoditized, where 10% would probably be a leading market share. From a profitability standpoint, that's a losing strategy and you don't get that.

B) To claim that Jobs isn't extremely nervous and that, to some extent, Android didn't catch Apple with its pants down is, as you would say, "fanboy denial".

Android has features and customization that IOS now finds itself playing catch-up to. Multi-tasking? Folders? Widgets? It goes on and on. And I don't know where you get the Android is overly buggy - works pretty darn good for most out of the box. Not nearly almost 100% like Apple, but again that execution on Apple's part goes back to the choice NOT to be on multiple devices and all things to all people. IOS is better at SOME things than Android, and vice versa. Your claims to the contrary is really the only example of fan boy-ism in this thread.

 

[czerdrill]

What are you arguing? stop beating around the bush and say what it is youre trying to argue? that android is going to steamroll apple in a couple of years? how? how do you propose that will happen? it's not going too..

Spinning around in a backpedal now? The point that has been made repeatedly here is that Android is gaining huge shares of the market. You're response to that has been "nu-uh, no, IOS is better and would dominate if it was available on multiple devices". Despite the fact that your argument is a non-starter because IOS is not available and will not be available on multiple devices any time soon, it's also a failed premise that there's this huge mass of people who "have to have the IPhone" who have somehow gone years without caving into that overwhelming desire.

Android is not going to technically steamroll the IPhone, but as the market continues to grow and mature Android is going to capture a greater portion of those new users, primarily because IPhone is not trying to be all things to all people. And the sales data backs that up - IPhone's sweet spot is repeat sales to a very loyal customer base while new smartphone users are flocking to Android. Apple could try to compete there, but they aren't going to because, among other reasons, it would devalue their brand and hurt their margins.

And the most obvious issue here is Google is disruptive technology. Android is free and open. Basic business sense says you don't try to compete with something that is free, which is why Apple will do nothing to jeopardize the IPhone position as a premium device or it's position as a status symbol. Licensing IOS is almost a given that it won't occur for years, if at all. The problem with multiple devices is it adds complexity, which leads to issues - also not good because you can't be the premium device if you have quality problems.

This growing mass of new smartphone users are going to increasingly choose Android based on, among other things, price. You can't ignore that simple fact even while you want to pretend there aren't perfectly valid reasons people choose Android if all else were equal (also clearly not the case). The people who "have to have" the IPhone already have an IPhone, for the most part. As the smartphone market continues to grow, price will become an increasingly dominant factor in the purchase decision, especially as the phones become more of a commodity along with differences in OS being very marginal to begin with.

Does saying that I'm backpedaling somehow convince yourself that I am? Where are you getting the premise that "everyone has to have an android phone?" why isn't the sudden growth of android caused by the same reason the iphone blew up? because it's new, and offers an alternative? why wouldn't in two years, 80% of sales be upgrades? what makes you think that in two years 97% of sales are going to be new users? Was it choice? Android has been around for a couple of years...why didn't they choose to go there then? Was it marketing? Why...yes it was! It was Verizon's marketing of android that put them on the map. it was the best cellular network in the US, getting a phone that could compete with the iPhone...so if or when an iPhone comes to Verizon, what makes you think Android is going to continue to take over the market? Was it choice? Oh wait we said this already didn't we? They had a choice and they didn't take it. Was it marketing? Why...yes it was! An iPhone on verizon will be marketed like no other phone before it (i know i know, verizon doesn't have to market it, it's already famous hahaa...what a joke). I pray that you won't be stunned if you see a Verizon iPhone commercial since you seem to have convinced yourself that Verizon has no need to market one (you know since they don't make any money of phones, and only on the service haha). You know the millions of people who don't have smartphones that you keep talking about? They're not going to going to all flock to droids if there's also an iphone as an option because "we have choice, open source yeahhhh!!!!" It'll be 50/50 or very close. And guess what? they'll have the choice to throw a verizon iPhone off the map and into oblivion and they wont...trust me.

your arguments become moot the minute an iphone comes to verizon. it can be old users switching from AT&T, it can be current droid owners switching to an iphone, it can be one of the millions of people who don't have a smartphone getting one for the first time, but if you truly believe that android is going to outsell an iphone on verizon, then there's nothing i can say that will convince you otherwise. you can sit at home and argue about upgrades being 80% and new users being 20%, and you'll be as irrelevant to apple and verizon as your arguments are to this thread. a sale is a sale. apple is not going to lament, and put on a sackloth and yell "woe is me" because 80% of their verizon sales were users switching from AT&T. They'll take their money and laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[Darkseider]

Me thinks that czerdrill is an Apple marketing shill Regardless of what you choose to believe every quarter the reports from Nielsen, IDG, etc.. keep coming in. They keep showing Android usurping Apple's market share both here and abroad. Multiple analysts and market insiders have stated that Android will be the top dog by 2012. Hell even Uncle Steve his colors by bashing Android/Google during his quarterly earnings report. Worry any Uncle Steve? He sees the writing on the wall as well. No matter what Android will continue to take away Apple market share, advertising $$$ and sales $$$.

 

[kodiak799]

Second time you've said that irrelevant statement. Millions are buying iPhone too (oh yeah that's right, 80% are upgrades so they somehow don't "count"

...you're in for a severe disappointment when 80% start upgrading their android phones and android doesn't get 97% new users every year lol

LOL, how is it irrelevant? You keep claiming everyone "has to have IPhone" and we keep pointing out that is patently false.

Second, Android users tend not to throw money at marginal upgrades. Those are the sort of users Apple doesn't target and really doesn't want. You're going to be sorely disappointed when Android users don't switch en-masse (again, there are switching costs which are going to dominate any marginal difference you perceive between these devices) and Android continues to get more and more of the new smartphone users because - SURPRISE - none of these people are enamored enough with IPhone to pay a premium for it. Again, look at the PC market. It's well established that the mass market purchases on value - IPhone is not and never will be the best value out there.

 

[kodiak799]

the reason they sell is because people think "iphone i have to have that!!!" without knowing anything about the phone, about specs, about comparisons to android...what they do know is people moonwalk in the commercials and that "there's an app for that"

Did you forget this little response or are you in full backpedal mode?

 

[czerdrill]

you can't seriously think that Google is sitting around going "whew we made it! the apple threat is officially mitigated. In a couple of years we should be the mobile masters!!!" Google knows android is not as good as apple, and apple knows that too. android has far more many things to improve on then apple does. you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat?

You really don't have a clue about what is going on here.

A) Google is going after the PC OS, Apple is just in the way of that goal (well, not so much anymore) as the means through leveraging mobile. The market shares are neck-and-neck, so Android HAS made it. And, gee, now they are turning their sites on RIM and the corporate market.

Apple simply can't dominate the market because IOS can't compete with free and open, and Apple would never go that route. Again, look at the PC market - Mac has less than 5%. IOS could be a major player as one of two or three, maybe four, dominant OS's, but there's no money in it when Android is free. And then it's all about the handsets which are becoming increasingly commoditized, where 10% would probably be a leading market share. From a profitability standpoint, that's a losing strategy and you don't get that.

B) To claim that Jobs isn't extremely nervous and that, to some extent, Android didn't catch Apple with its pants down is, as you would say, "fanboy denial".

Android has features and customization that IOS now finds itself playing catch-up to. Multi-tasking? Folders? Widgets? It goes on and on. And I don't know where you get the Android is overly buggy - works pretty darn good for most out of the box. Not nearly almost 100% like Apple, but again that execution on Apple's part goes back to the choice NOT to be on multiple devices and all things to all people. IOS is better at SOME things than Android, and vice versa. Your claims to the contrary is really the only example of fan boy-ism in this thread.

...i really feel like i'm insulting your intelligence by doing this, but the lack of reading comprehension is astounding:

A) Read what i underlined above. I'll post it again, because you might forget what you read by the time your eyes get back down here: you can't seriously think that Google is sitting around going "whew we made it! the apple threat is officially mitigated. In a couple of years we should be the mobile masters!!" And you're saying Google has made it, right? So...now let's answer my question. Here it is one more time (there's no way you can misconstrue it a 4th time could you??): you can't seriously think that Google is sitting around going "whew we made it! the apple threat is officially mitigated. In a couple of years we should be the mobile masters!!!"

B) Read the second thing I've underlined. I'll post it again, because you might forget what you read by the time your eyes get back down here: you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat?. And in your response to me (if you want to call it that, since it was made with an utter lack of comprehension) was "To claim that Jobs isn't extremely nervous and that, to some extent, Android didn't catch Apple with its pants down is, as you would say, "fanboy denial" Ok, now in what part of "you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat?" (That should be the 4th time you're reading that...) did you get the impression that I'm saying Apple is not worried about android? Here let me do it one more time: you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat? Now in babyspeak for you: When I ask that question, it means Apple is aware of the threat and are going to try to figure out how to overcome it. Whether or not they will, no one knows. I hate doing this but: you've admitted that apple has brilliant execution in their business strategy, so what makes you think they're just sitting back and not preparing for the android threat? How could you possibly have thought that I was saying that Apple wasn't aware of that threat? I mean you did say: ""To claim that Jobs isn't extremely nervous and that, to some extent, Android didn't catch Apple with its pants down is, as you would say, "fanboy denial"? right? as someone who can comprehend what they read, i took that to mean that youre saying that I claimed that Jobs isn't extremely nervous and that, to some extent, Android didn't catch Apple with its pants down"...please answer my question before going off on rants. i'm trying to have a discussion here, not teach 1st grade reading...

 

[czerdrill]

Me thinks that czerdrill is an Apple marketing shill Regardless of what you choose to believe every quarter the reports from Nielsen, IDG, etc.. keep coming in. They keep showing Android usurping Apple's market share both here and abroad. Multiple analysts and market insiders have stated that Android will be the top dog by 2012. Hell even Uncle Steve his colors by bashing Android/Google during his quarterly earnings report. Worry any Uncle Steve? He sees the writing on the wall as well. No matter what Android will continue to take away Apple market share, advertising $$$ and sales $$$.

i know A LOT of people who disagree with you and know that I own an Android phone and would never get an iPhone. Yeah...all 20 of them!!

 

[czerdrill]

Second time you've said that irrelevant statement. Millions are buying iPhone too (oh yeah that's right, 80% are upgrades so they somehow don't "count"

...you're in for a severe disappointment when 80% start upgrading their android phones and android doesn't get 97% new users every year lol

LOL, how is it irrelevant? You keep claiming everyone "has to have IPhone" and we keep pointing out that is patently false.

Second, Android users tend not to throw money at marginal upgrades. Those are the sort of users Apple doesn't target and really doesn't want. You're going to be sorely disappointed when Android users don't switch en-masse (again, there are switching costs which are going to dominate any marginal difference you perceive between these devices) and Android continues to get more and more of the new smartphone users because - SURPRISE - none of these people are enamored enough with IPhone to pay a premium for it. Again, look at the PC market. It's well established that the mass market purchases on value - IPhone is not and never will be the best value out there.

It's irrelevant because you're acting as if Android users won't be upgrading. As if for as long as android exists their "new users" will be more then they're current loyal users? Why tell me about upgrades when android is going to face the same thing? Do you think that every year for the rest of android's existence new users are going to be purchasing android phones in droves, moreso than those that upgrade?

 

[czerdrill]

the reason they sell is because people think "iphone i have to have that!!!" without knowing anything about the phone, about specs, about comparisons to android...what they do know is people moonwalk in the commercials and that "there's an app for that"

Did you forget this little response or are you in full backpedal mode?

There were three dots after I wrote that, they looked like this "..." i assumed that by placing those dots there you'd comprehend that there were more words to follow...they signal that what I was writing wasn't completed and I had more to add to my thought. I'll wait while you go back and read the rest. Stop taking things out of context and then saying I'm backpedaling. It makes you look even more foolish than you already do.

 

[Darkseider]

Second time you've said that irrelevant statement. Millions are buying iPhone too (oh yeah that's right, 80% are upgrades so they somehow don't "count"

...you're in for a severe disappointment when 80% start upgrading their android phones and android doesn't get 97% new users every year lol

LOL, how is it irrelevant? You keep claiming everyone "has to have IPhone" and we keep pointing out that is patently false.

Second, Android users tend not to throw money at marginal upgrades. Those are the sort of users Apple doesn't target and really doesn't want. You're going to be sorely disappointed when Android users don't switch en-masse (again, there are switching costs which are going to dominate any marginal difference you perceive between these devices) and Android continues to get more and more of the new smartphone users because - SURPRISE - none of these people are enamored enough with IPhone to pay a premium for it. Again, look at the PC market. It's well established that the mass market purchases on value - IPhone is not and never will be the best value out there.

It's irrelevant because you're acting as if Android users won't be upgrading. As if for as long as android exists their "new users" will be more then they're current loyal users? Why tell me about upgrades when android is going to face the same thing? Do you think that every year for the rest of android's existence new users are going to be purchasing android phones in droves, moreso than those that upgrade?

Well. Seeing that Android upgrades won't really be a factor until this time next year it's not really worth speculating about. Most of the popular Android handsets were introduced this year. Assuming most people go 14-16 months prior to an early upgrade and not yearly that means we won't be seeing anything worth mentioning until Q3/Q4 2011. As for the early adopters and people that will buy it and sell their old device to compensate for the cost it is a very small percentage. There are still tons of folks using the G1 and HTC Hero. Let alone all those that jumped on the AT&T bandwagon and grabbed a Backflip, Aria or Captivate.

With all these new Android users and exorbitant early termination/early upgrade fees folks won't be doing it. The sales you have seen for Android and will continue to see for the better part of another full year will be new customers. Whereas Apple has conditioned the flock to upgrade EVERY year and even offered an incentive this time, you do remember that right?

Again regardless of your argument it has been proven throughout the course of 2010 that Android is swallowing up the market and growing at an incredible pace. This pace as has been stated by multiple firms, analysts and industry experts doesn't look to be slowing down for the foreseeable future. Which in turn has, as I have stated, lead all of them to state that Android by 2012 will be the number one mobile OS worldwide in both sales and market share.

 

[czerdrill]

LOL, how is it irrelevant? You keep claiming everyone "has to have IPhone" and we keep pointing out that is patently false.

Second, Android users tend not to throw money at marginal upgrades. Those are the sort of users Apple doesn't target and really doesn't want. You're going to be sorely disappointed when Android users don't switch en-masse (again, there are switching costs which are going to dominate any marginal difference you perceive between these devices) and Android continues to get more and more of the new smartphone users because - SURPRISE - none of these people are enamored enough with IPhone to pay a premium for it. Again, look at the PC market. It's well established that the mass market purchases on value - IPhone is not and never will be the best value out there.

It's irrelevant because you're acting as if Android users won't be upgrading. As if for as long as android exists their "new users" will be more then they're current loyal users? Why tell me about upgrades when android is going to face the same thing? Do you think that every year for the rest of android's existence new users are going to be purchasing android phones in droves, moreso than those that upgrade?

Well. Seeing that Android upgrades won't really be a factor until this time next year it's not really worth speculating about. Most of the popular Android handsets were introduced this year. Assuming most people go 14-16 months prior to an early upgrade and not yearly that means we won't be seeing anything worth mentioning until Q3/Q4 2011. As for the early adopters and people that will buy it and sell their old device to compensate for the cost it is a very small percentage. There are still tons of folks using the G1 and HTC Hero. Let alone all those that jumped on the AT&T bandwagon and grabbed a Backflip, Aria or Captivate.

With all these new Android users and exorbitant early termination/early upgrade fees folks won't be doing it. The sales you have seen for Android and will continue to see for the better part of another full year will be new customers. Whereas Apple has conditioned the flock to upgrade EVERY year and even offered an incentive this time, you do remember that right?

Again regardless of your argument it has been proven throughout the course of 2010 that Android is swallowing up the market and growing at an incredible pace. This pace as has been stated by multiple firms, analysts and industry experts doesn't look to be slowing down for the foreseeable future. Which in turn has, as I have stated, lead all of them to state that Android by 2012 will be the number one mobile OS worldwide in both sales and market share.

This ENTIRE thread is speculation haha....how can you possibly say it's not worth speculating. you telling me that android is going to take the lead in market share is speculation (trying to pass it off as fact like you and kodiak are doing doesn't make it so)...

the answer to my question which neither one of you will answer (either because you can't comprehend it (kodiak) or think it's speculation (LOL)) is yes, most android users will eventually be upgrading, and you're not going to see 40M new sales every year for the rest of eternity. it was a simple question and both of you successfully skirted the question by telling me i was backpedaling. if you think that android is going to continue to get new users forever then again, you guys are fanboys that have no common sense. if you don't think that, then every argument you talk about upgrades to the iPhone is irrelevant. Simple as that.

 

[czerdrill]

oh and btw if 40M android users do upgrade in 2 years, I'll still call that 40M sales...i'm not going to argue irrelevant semantics like the two of you...

 

[Darkseider]

It's irrelevant because you're acting as if Android users won't be upgrading. As if for as long as android exists their "new users" will be more then they're current loyal users? Why tell me about upgrades when android is going to face the same thing? Do you think that every year for the rest of android's existence new users are going to be purchasing android phones in droves, moreso than those that upgrade?

Well. Seeing that Android upgrades won't really be a factor until this time next year it's not really worth speculating about. Most of the popular Android handsets were introduced this year. Assuming most people go 14-16 months prior to an early upgrade and not yearly that means we won't be seeing anything worth mentioning until Q3/Q4 2011. As for the early adopters and people that will buy it and sell their old device to compensate for the cost it is a very small percentage. There are still tons of folks using the G1 and HTC Hero. Let alone all those that jumped on the AT&T bandwagon and grabbed a Backflip, Aria or Captivate.

With all these new Android users and exorbitant early termination/early upgrade fees folks won't be doing it. The sales you have seen for Android and will continue to see for the better part of another full year will be new customers. Whereas Apple has conditioned the flock to upgrade EVERY year and even offered an incentive this time, you do remember that right?

Again regardless of your argument it has been proven throughout the course of 2010 that Android is swallowing up the market and growing at an incredible pace. This pace as has been stated by multiple firms, analysts and industry experts doesn't look to be slowing down for the foreseeable future. Which in turn has, as I have stated, lead all of them to state that Android by 2012 will be the number one mobile OS worldwide in both sales and market share.

This ENTIRE thread is speculation haha....how can you possibly say it's not worth speculating. you telling me that android is going to take the lead in market share is speculation (trying to pass it off as fact like you and kodiak are doing doesn't make it so)...

the answer to my question which neither one of you will answer (either because you can't comprehend it (kodiak) or think it's speculation (LOL)) is yes, most android users will eventually be upgrading, and you're not going to see 40M new sales every year for the rest of eternity. it was a simple question and both of you successfully skirted the question by telling me i was backpedaling. if you think that android is going to continue to get new users forever then again, you guys are fanboys that have no common sense. if you don't think that, then every argument you talk about upgrades to the iPhone is irrelevant. Simple as that.

Sure there will be upgrades but the other point is that most NEW smart phone customers, read as those whom never owned a smart phone before, are purchasing Android handsets. So yes there will be upgrades but there will also be tons of new sales as the smartphone market continues to grow.

 

[czerdrill]

Well. Seeing that Android upgrades won't really be a factor until this time next year it's not really worth speculating about. Most of the popular Android handsets were introduced this year. Assuming most people go 14-16 months prior to an early upgrade and not yearly that means we won't be seeing anything worth mentioning until Q3/Q4 2011. As for the early adopters and people that will buy it and sell their old device to compensate for the cost it is a very small percentage. There are still tons of folks using the G1 and HTC Hero. Let alone all those that jumped on the AT&T bandwagon and grabbed a Backflip, Aria or Captivate.

With all these new Android users and exorbitant early termination/early upgrade fees folks won't be doing it. The sales you have seen for Android and will continue to see for the better part of another full year will be new customers. Whereas Apple has conditioned the flock to upgrade EVERY year and even offered an incentive this time, you do remember that right?

Again regardless of your argument it has been proven throughout the course of 2010 that Android is swallowing up the market and growing at an incredible pace. This pace as has been stated by multiple firms, analysts and industry experts doesn't look to be slowing down for the foreseeable future. Which in turn has, as I have stated, lead all of them to state that Android by 2012 will be the number one mobile OS worldwide in both sales and market share.

This ENTIRE thread is speculation haha....how can you possibly say it's not worth speculating. you telling me that android is going to take the lead in market share is speculation (trying to pass it off as fact like you and kodiak are doing doesn't make it so)...

the answer to my question which neither one of you will answer (either because you can't comprehend it (kodiak) or think it's speculation (LOL)) is yes, most android users will eventually be upgrading, and you're not going to see 40M new sales every year for the rest of eternity. it was a simple question and both of you successfully skirted the question by telling me i was backpedaling. if you think that android is going to continue to get new users forever then again, you guys are fanboys that have no common sense. if you don't think that, then every argument you talk about upgrades to the iPhone is irrelevant. Simple as that.

Sure there will be upgrades but the other point is that most NEW smart phone customers, read as those whom never owned a smart phone before, are purchasing Android handsets. So yes there will be upgrades but there will also be tons of new sales as the smartphone market continues to grow.

fair enough. is it also fair to say that eventually, the number of upgraders will far outnumber the number of new users? because logic would tell you that growth will occur exponentially right? and eventually that growth will have to plateau? I mean you're not going to get 40M new sales one year, then 80M the next, then 160M the year after and 320M after that, right? At some point the upgraders will outnumber the new sales right? So how is that a relevant argument?