Googorola Will Kill Off Motorola Smartphones and Turn Android Closed Source?

[cereal killer]

There has been a lot of interesting theories/opinions on what impact Google's acquisition of Motorola will have on Android, and we touched on that briefly with a post from a contributor at Forbes that stated Motorola's smartphones would die at Google. Patrick Moorhead, contributing writer at Forbes, brought a very good argument to the table that "you cannot directly compete long term with your own customers long-term." His comment reflects a reality that has played out in the high tech world time and time again, so this observation is one that should not be discounted or thrown away as weak speculation. He outlines a very specific scenario that he see's playing out with the acquisition. Let's take a look at the step by step scenario of how he views the deconstruction of Motorola Handsets.

• Handset makers develop alternative backup plans to move to Windows Phone 8. Microsoft is receiving them with open arms right now. Samsung and many others already ship Windows Phone 7.
• Key Motorola smartphone talent start to leave after stock lockout dates and realization that Motorola cannot remain a standalone brand inside Google.
• Motorola launches the most compelling Android-based handsets and begin to take market share.
• Android licensees start executing their contingency plans and move strategic handsets to Windows. Android share plummets as Windows ascends.
• Google looks to spin out the Motorola handset company and license back IP but realizes they cannot lose the hardware talent.
• Google announces an exciting shift in strategy that provides all of Motorola’s design capabilities and IP to all Android licensees. The Motorola branded handsets are discontinued. The technical staff is put into hardware architecture groups similar to the way they are organized at Microsoft. Redundant employees are redeployed or laid off.

That's quite a shocking scenario that could change the landscape of the playing field forever. However, as with anything, nothing is ever certain and Google's intentions of the new unit running as an independent business could very well work. Speculation about the acquisition doesn't end there. Yesterday at HP's Global Partner Conference in Las Vegas, Meg Whitman took the stage and dropped a bombshell that sounds a lot like crazy talk, but is worth taking a look at. The HP CEO claims that the merger will turn Android into a closed OS. She said:

I think there is room for another operating system. iOS is great but it is a closed system. I think that Android may end up as a closed system because of [Google’s] relationship with Motorola.

Whitman is probably right that the merger may fundamentally change the Android landscape forever, although her comments could sound a little ludicrous. As it stands now, Google makes money off Android by serving ads to mobile websites and through applications, so making Android closed source would be shooting themselves in the foot. That is a given, but what if the scenario outlined above by Patrick Moorhead (Forbes) were to play out? Could this merger jeopardize the open platform Android enthusiast have enjoyed for so long, and kill off the Motorola Smartphone, or is this simply insanity?

Source:Business Insider

 

[hillbilliegreg]

Sounds like fud to me

 

[Captmilk]

I don't think so, why would they hurt companies like HTC and Samsung their bread and butter right now. Plus Google would still continue to profit from those companies as well. Google/Motorola will likely offer early OTA updates and OS perks to their smartphone customers.

 

[silverfang77]

It's BS from a pair of Apple fanatics. Pay them no mind and they will go away.

 

[DamirD1984]

here's a scenario...

the world ends on December 21st...

I don't think it is going to change android in any way, when it comes to open platform, that is the whole driving force of android os... And I only see Motorola smart-phones get better because of Google's stand on open bootloaders

 

[B-Unit]

Um, or we could see whats been announced, i.e. Moto stays its own 'unit' and Google runs with the new IP while enjoying some of the money from the hardware pie.

 

[kodiak799]

Rampant speculation with little basic business sense to support it. Can't compete with your customers? Ummm, Google gives the software away. Yes, they are still technically customers but those customers also aren't walking away from a market of some 200M people and growing astronomically. For the same reason they will keep an eye on WinMo, but they won't be diving in until that market shows some potential to grow. Otherwise, they'd just be conceding hundreds of millions in sales to Apple and Motorola.

It's possible, but probably still unlikely, that Moto Mobility could become a shell of itself. Google probably doesn't have need or desire to crank out dozens of handsets a year, but with their strategy to take over you electronic world (diving into home entertainment) they aren't going to just walk away from the device likely to be the guts of it all.

 

[kevsgroove]

I'd really love to see Motorola hardware carrying Google's Nexus design in the next year or two. This scenario has the potential to blow that dream out of the water.

 

[kodiak799]

Wait a second....Google is going to kill Moto Mobility AND make Android closed source? That makes absolutely no sense. In fact, it's idiotic. The writer may be dumb but Google is not.

 

[Tillmorn]

While this does not sound pretty, it is certainly a possibility. A closed system is exactly what has helped Apple achieve its success over these last few years. One of the biggest selling points that Apple uses is "It just works." Being able to control things more, ie. build quality, updates, etc. across the board would actually end a lot of the arguments that Apple fanatics make against Android and its manufacturers. Think about it this way: what if you didn't have to potentially wait until roughly Q3 to get an update to ICS? That's the reality we are currently facing with things being spread out so much between manufacturers and carriers. Would this create a fundamental shift in the way Android does business? Yes. Would many of its current supporters like it? Probably not. But it could work.

With that said, I believe that whatever road Google decides to take with Motorola and their Android platform, something great will come of it. And to be quite honest, I would prefer a little more quality control with Android devices. And by that, I mean that this whole pushing out a new device every few months from manufacturers is starting to get really, really old. That and the fact the carriers are putting Android devices on the EOL list at a quicker pace. Take Samsung for example: As soon as the SII rolled out, speculation, rumors, and hints at the SIII started flooding the web. Or how about Motorola: Bionic is finally released. Bam, here comes the Razr. Oh wait, here's the RazrMaxx!!! In that regard, I think the iPhone line has Android beat. No, one device a year would not serve our community. But 2 model lines from each manufacturer, pushed out and updated yearly? Sign me up. Because the constant race to release devices with slightly higher clock speeds/screen technology/RAM/etc. is getting out of hand.

Just my thoughts.

 

[Insidious]

Hmm even it was closed source, stock android + moto hardware= me gusta. It would be dissapointing to see though.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW using DroidForums

 

[tjk629]

I don't think it would be all that bad if Google followed how Microsoft is handling WP right now.

You get the handset diversity, but an OS that is the same on every phone, and gets updates at the same time.

 

[xsylus]

Here's a theory: Google is going to do away with MotoBlur. :biggrin: ...hey, it could happen. And it's just as plausible of a theory as the OP. Personally I've always liked the Motorola insignia. As a kid whenever I saw a product with Motorola stamped on it I just automatically thought that's a quality product. Maybe it's just the fact the the "M" logo kind of looks similar to the batman logo :wink-b: ..who knows...

Anyway, I highly doubt anyone can truly predict what Google's plans and strategies are. I mean com'on, it's Google, they've made good decisions and bad decisions but in the end they're still thriving so they must be doing something right. If any other company could predict what Google was going to do next they could beat Google to the punch but chances are Google's going to sucker punch us all with more unexpected and wonderful offerings.

View attachment 47489
My OG Droid 1 Boot Loader Image :biggrin:

 

[droidbionicmaster]

Motorola has the moat popular Android devices that wont happen

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[kodiak799]

If they make it closed source, the licensing fees will make other handsets uncompetitive from a pricing standpoint with the IPhone, which enjoys clear cost economies of scale advantages. In that scenario, Google NEEDS Moto, especially if other OEM's would turn to WinMo (or perhaps even IOS if Apple ever decides to go that route).

Of course, closed source doesn't mean high licensing fees, it could simply mean putting some restrictions on its use (like offering an option to completely remove any Manufacturer UI).

It is possible that Google bought Moto just for the patents, but why would you destroy one of the top providers of your product? The concern will always be there, but ultimately so long as Moto operates independently and receives no favoritism it's a non-issue.