the only people who think fragmentation isn't an issue, are of course, non-programmers...lol.
It's a boogeyman argument...How many versions of Windows are people running out there? How many different PC's and hardware configurations are there? Do we ever hear about fragmentation on the PC? No, because the market is so large it's a non-issue. Does it make life more difficult for developers? Yep. Can they still make money and will they develop for Android? Yep.
PC Linux, on the other hand....much smaller installed base and many different flavors. Fragmentation essentially did keep it from getting a foothold.
You simply cannot ignore installed base when talking about fragmentation. I could make an argument that Android is less fragmented now, comparatively speaking, with an installed base of 100M than it was two years ago with 1M users.
I don't know, i think its incredibly insulting to call it a "boogeyman argument". Again, to non-programmers its easy to dismiss it as boogeyman and irrelevant because all you have to do is press install or update but to those who develop apps its quite a different story.
i'm not suggesting that fragmentation is going to destroy android and prevent any chance of a dev being successful or that devs are going to all form a union and migrate to ios, but believe me it's not a boogeyman argument.
how many apps have you developed, are in the process of developing or have published in the android market? i'm just trying to figure out where you're getting the conviction that it's a boogeyman argument from?
no one is ignoring installed base. however from a developer perspective, i fail to see how having more hardware configurations and more OS versions out there somehow solves the problem of fragmentation or is even relevant. installed base is high not because some standard has been reached, but because more OEMs are creating more phones and devices which all run different OS versions/hardware configs and these devices are being offered for relatively cheap prices with different hardware configurations. The popularity of android doesn't somehow negate fragmentation.
I've developed for android and have worked with a team of devs for ios and believe me ios is far easier to develop for and support then android. and that's purely because of fragmentation, both hardware and software. taking installed base into consideration doesnt somehow make developing for android easier, and not sure why you think it would.
Developers have to develop and bug-fix across multiple OS versions, decide how they want to distribute their app across multiple markets, and tweak their app to work across multiple hardware configurations. not to mention differences between tablets and smartphones, and programming languages.
theres not going to be anytime soon where an android dev can make one version of his app and have it work across all or even the majority of devices. installed base has nothing to do with that. couple that with the time spent bug-fixing and providing support and your ROI is virtually nil.
Saying "only mom and pop developers are hurt by fragmentation" is pretty much saying the overwhelming majority of devs are hurt isn't it? I mean it's not like major corporations are clamoring to make a profit on the android market(s) right? sure there are huge well known devs/companies that have made money on the android market, but that's because they have the money to make money.
the truth is "mom and pop developers" are probably 90+% of the developers for android. it's not like every dev is part of some company that has commissioned them to create an android app. in fact, some (if not all) of the best android apps come from independent developers.
Like I said, the people who say it's no big deal are the ones who are not creating the apps. While it may not be a deal breaker, you will be hard pressed to find any
developer who says it's a "boogeyman" argument, and like i said I'm sure they would take offense to it being downplayed like that given the work that they do. It's a boogeyman for the person who just hits the update button, i'm sure, though.