Will 2011 Be the Year of the Android Domination?

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Signs point to 2011 being the 'breakout' year for the Android to overtake every other smartphone and dominate the world market. We've seen many indications that next year Verizon will probably get the iPhone, so how could this be true? Obviously, when/if the iPhone does come to Verizon it will send Apple's smartphone market-share through the roof, yet it probably won't be enough to stymie the gigantic momentum of the Android. In fact, in less than a year the Android has already overtaken the Blackberry in market-share and RIM will probably forever be playing 'catch-up'.

There are three primary factors that lead us to surmise that 2011 will be the year of Android's rising star. The first factor which I will share with you comes down to technological advantage. The second factor is rooted in the basic principles of economics. In other word's... it comes down to money. The third factor is one that any user of an Android can tell you about and is the most powerful but also most subtle reason why the Android will eventually dominate... it's the phone's openness.

The first factor is something we've written about previously here: Dual-core chips. Although I am sure that Apple is working on a dual-core chip for their next iPhone, market timing is everything in this business, and for the first time since it was introduced, the iPhone will 'truly' be far behind the technological curve. This small 'hic-up' will be enough to allow Android manufacturers to claim technological superiority in their marketing strategy, and steal 'market-traction' away from Apple.

An argument could be made that several current Android phones are already ahead of it technologically, and while that is 'technically' correct, the underlying core and function of the iPhone has really still been on-par and even still surpassed many Androids. For example, although our amazing Androids are all more versatile and more customizable than the iPhone, the 'fit, finish and function' of the iPhone still win over more reviewers than most of the different Android's combined. From the excellent capability of the camera, to the tight feel of the phone and the way the apps 'just work', you have to give Apple credit for making a quality product with 'toaster-like' ease of use. It's also a testament to the iPhone that they are still setting the bar for everyone else to beat. Ultimately, they will be beaten though. It is inevitable.

The important thing about Android getting dual-core chips is mostly a 'prestige' marketing factor; however, the capabilities inherent in a dual-core chip allow the phone to perform so much better and use less battery life doing it. This will cause some shifting in Apple's customer loyalty, and this 'market-movement' will not be insignificant. Still, this is only one factor, and this one factor alone would not be enough to create complete dominance for Andy.

The next factor was shared recently in this excellent article by Fortune/CNNMoney.com. In this story, they share with us a new hardware announcement from tech-giant Broadcom. In only 3-6 months we should start seeing new Android smartphones debut with a new chipset from Broadcom: the BCM2157 - Mass-Market 3G HSDPA "Android" Baseband chipset. The specs on this dual-core chip are not as impressive as many of the other dual-core chips, like the Tegra 2 from Nvidia. For reference, here are the specs:

The BCM2157 baseband, since it combines many functions on one chip, is able to run more efficiently, meaning less battery power will be needed than on current basic handsets
Low-cost, low-power, 65 nm digital CMOS process means the silicon will be cheap
The dual-core processors will run at 500-800mhz.
Supports portable Wifi hotspot and Android 2.2 and up

The specs are not the reason why this chip will create a significant impact in the smartphone market. The reason why this announcement is significant and why this chipset will be a major factor for Android market dominance is its cheap price. This base-line dual-core chip is so inexpensive to produce that phones sporting this little workhorse will retail for below $100 bucks, and maybe as low as $75 bucks. Let me make that clear... that price-point is for the actual full retail price of the phone, not the cost to make it. Although, this chipset can handle any smartphone OS, it is being marketed primarily, by Broadcom themselves, as an Android chipset.

At that price, you will see millions of people who have never owned a smartphone before, finally give it a try; furthermore, at that price, there will be droves of people switching phones without signing up for new contracts. This in-turn will create downward pressure on the cell-phone carriers, creating greater competition, resulting in even cheaper monthly fees on services, which in-turn will bring even more consumers. Couple that with the vast improvements being made to wireless infrastructure world-wide and you have a recipe for enormous mass-market proliferation. And Broadcom isn't the only chipset maker getting in this 'low-cost' game, there is another chipset maker out of China poised to release something similar in the Chinese and Indian markets. This is a vast, 'gold-mine' of potential smartphone customers.

Google Android head Andy Rubin believes this a 'perfect storm' for smartphone adoption, and HTC projects they will triple their output of smartphone production next year. It all boils down to appealing to the mass-market consumer... eventually, because the iPhone is cost-prohibitive, Apple will defeat itself. Apple will probably still reap excellent profits from marketing to the 'high-end' although, ironically, soon it will not remain the highest of the high-end. Eventually its own 'elitism' will be its downfall.

The final factor and reason we will see the Android 'reign supreme' in 2011 is the simple elegance of its openness. I believe, no other factor is as significant as this, and it is the reason for the Android's current meteoric rise to the forefront. Most people don't like to be restricted and limited. I realize on this forum that I am 'preaching to the choir' here, but we all know and love the Android for the capability of doing anything we want with it. We can truly 'make it our own'. It's not just the customization, it's also the ability to choose what and how I will use the device that I spent my money on. Most of the decisions we make in our lives can be attributed to subtle and small unconscious motivations... it is ingrained in our psyche to feel 'free'. Google's Android makes it easier to feel that way.

I am looking forward to seeing the results. Do you guys think 2011 will be an interesting year for 'Andy'?

Source: CNNMoney.com
Picture Source: shivian
by dgstorm