Verizon iPhone. Jan/Feb 2011 Release *Rumor*

Discussion in 'Non-Android Smart Phones' started by Vanilla Ice, Dec 13, 2010.

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  1. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    And 6M+ of those are going to be AT&T switchers.

    I expect Apple to maintain its share in the 25-30% range, and that Nielsen survey aligns with that. But while Android will no longer have free reign of VZW smartphone subscribers, IPhone is also going to see a lot more competition on AT&T from Android and if IPhone is too late to the LTE game it's going to really struggle to maintain share.

    I guess we seem to have similar perspectives but arguing semantics a bit. AT&T switchers has no net effect on Android. When I say the IPhone should maintain share, I don't consider that earth shattering or significant. I guess when I read your posts I'm surprised that you think there will only be 3-4M new VZW IPhone subscribers, although that probably is in the 25-30% range of new VZW smartphone users. Well, ok, that's double a "fair share" of 6 or so high-end phones.

    Sure, that's 3-4M less Android sales, but some of those will be cannibalized from AT&T as well, and partially offset by Android gains at AT&T. But I don't think it will be that noticeable when Android surges to 35-40% share this year.
     
  2. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    I really don't know much about Android's numbers on AT&T or any other provider so I can't really comment on that and what affect Android will have on iPhone on AT&T. But yeah, I see what you're saying about share, and I was looking at it wrong there. You're right in that respect that AT&T switchers have no effect on Android. But Android switchers definitely do. While it may not be as ridiculous as 10% of android users switching, I think it will be an appreciable amount and not just a negligible one. I think 10-15% of current smartphone users total across all OSs will switch, and then they'll be some new adopters. Apple's share is not going to skyrocket, and Android's is not going to plummet, I'm just assuming that Android will not take the lead. Who knows.
     
  3. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    .

    Sample size has to do with margin of error, or confidence intervals to be technical. What I am saying is eventhough the sample size of 50-100 (mostly internet observations on non-tech boards and some business contacts, which I've said repeatedly, so I'd argue my sample is more random than the people you claim to know) is small, it's sufficient to conclude the numbers you suggest cannot be. I'm not suggesting it's zero, but merely the sample size is large enough to conclude it's not 15-20%. It's a large enough sample to conclude if my sample mean is basically 0 then the real mean is not 15-20%, but could be as large as maybe 10%. These are common sense observations I've made all along and numerous analyst reports have lined up with what I've been saying.

    No, I never said it's evidence they won't switch, but you posted that survey making that precise claim, and not only does it not support that they will switch phones it certainly doesn't support switching OS. And "common sense" would make a distinction between "unsatisfied" and "less than 100% satisfied". I would argue the vast majority of Android users are far from unsatisfied and switching costs make them unlikely to do so.

    Neilsen had another survey saying 85% satisfaction with IPhone and 70% with Android, and that's not a huge gap to suggest significant platform switching, which again aligns with common sense, particularly when you consider there's not new tech every few months on the IOS platform to highlight shortcomings and inadequacies on obsolete models like Android. And is it also fair to say that Android users are more demanding and push their phones more, never completely satisfied with a phone "that just works", so to speak, but always demanding what it could be doing?
     
  4. cereal killer

    cereal killer DF Administrator Staff Member

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    Now you are being rational over this whole thing : )

    I think Kodiaks well thought out and precise analysis made you realize a few things?
     
  5. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    Yeah, we pretty much have the same take. I think BB continues to be the big loser here.

    Lost the link, but saw another Neilsen survery that 6 months ending in November (so IPhone 4G sales included), Android was 40% of all smartphone sales and IPhone was 28.6%. When you factor in upgrades, Android is dominating new smartphone sales, but obviously the VZW IPhone will slow the bleed.

    I don't think 10-15% switchers across all OS is unreasonable, though we may be selling WinMo short. But I think there will also be some IPhone switchers, and we've seen this already, but particularly when LTE comes out.

    I just don't see significant switching between IPhone and Android. It could go a few % either way net I think, and 10% might be a conservative number for either platform as switching costs are lower for some or not a factor. I think what happens is going to be largely based on the latest phones when people's upgrades come out. When the LTE Androids come out they will crush everything. And then when LTE IPhones comes out they'll crush everything, until the next great LTE Android comes out, until the next IPhone...That's where 1 model a year can hurt the IPhone, a few months later as upgrades come up there will be more powerful Android phones out, but we're quickly approaching the tech saturation point.

    The interesting dynamic is people upgrading every year or two might actually make it pretty easy to own both Android and IPhone. If HTC comes out with "the last phone I'll ever need", if I was an Itunes person (as you've mentioned before), one of my upgrades would likely be an IPhone at some point.

    Don't know. Maybe I overestimate switching costs. Maybe I underestimate the desire to trial (would go both ways). Given where hardware almost is, maybe it makes sense that a lot of people will end-up owning both devices, especially since you can switch active devices on your account easily and they all work great with home wifi.
     
  6. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    Ehhh, mostly semantics over what constitutes significant. He's right, the VZW IPhone is going to take several million sales from Android, and there's no debating that's significant. I think some of us just discount it because we see it as a little more than a speed bump.

    You could also minimize the impact with increased competition at AT&T and that some of that 3-4M sales are people waiting for a VZW IPhone....even argue that there's a synergy where the VZW IPhone makes the whole pie that much bigger so everyone wins, and between that an LTE that's kind of where I lean.

    I enjoy the discussion. It will be fun to watch.
     
  7. Bilgediver

    Bilgediver Member

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    Don't forget that even if smartphone users really like their iphone on at&t, they still have tiered limited data plans. Verizon still has unlimited data mobile plans.

    I would be willing to bet some may switch just for that.

    Sent from my DROID2 GLOBAL using DroidForums App
     
  8. UNC

    UNC Active Member

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    I know plenty of people that WILL switch. Probably 5 or so. 3 have BB and 2 with android... also, I plan on switching to vPhone... so that's 3 android, and 3 BB users switching. Which is probably 25% of all BB users I know, and 30% of android users I know.

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  9. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    I still feel the way I always felt...android it's not going to overtake apple. That hadn't changed. What I did see from kodiak which I hadn't considered was that att defectors have zero effect on android share. But I still don't see android taking over especially when the lte iphone arrives

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  10. omelet

    omelet New Member

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    I'm just wondering if we ask the sales people at verizon "Which smart phone should I get?" If they will recommend the iPhone or another android device.

    The iPhone I could see non-techies to get, such as my mom who can't use an internet browser. I'd probably get one too if there were more free apps.
     
  11. mountainbikermark

    mountainbikermark DF Super Moderator Staff Member Premium Member

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    I'm surprised less is being factored in for the sheep factor. Verizon sheep who want to also be iPhone sheep.
    In this day and age of what you have is a direct reflection on how one sees themselves and the peer pressure fear that one might be less of a person if they don't have whatever in their own mind. Factor in those who "need " the latest and I believe iPhones will be more than 10% on Verizon for those reasons alone. Bring in the parents who worry that if Johnny or Janie don't get an iPhone they wont love them....

    Support Our Troops!! written in some form from a wifi monolith.
     
  12. Vanilla Ice

    Vanilla Ice Member

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    When you say "sheep" your talking about people That get what's hot? Not That they know anything about the phone. But because Brad Pitt has one?
     
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