Verizon iPhone. Jan/Feb 2011 Release *Rumor*

Discussion in 'Non-Android Smart Phones' started by Vanilla Ice, Dec 13, 2010.

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  1. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    I say it's far less than that. Anyone who has bought a computer in the last 3-4 years is probably familiar with dual core terminology. At it's most base, ignorant level the techno illiterates think "hmm, two must be better than 1". Same impact as when we talk the overkill of 8mp or 12m cameras - it's has mostly a marketing impact but the impact is real.

    But it's not dual core that's going to be the dominant factor, it's LTE. Speed is a huge driver, if it wasn't we'd all still be using dial-up for free over home land lines.
     
  2. blacksoxing

    blacksoxing Active Member

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    Yea, that's fascinating

    Angry Birds creators: Apple still does mobile apps best

    A link to where I read about how the devs dislike the frag, but not the EXACT article of it.

    I feel him on that. I'd hate to have made a great game or app...only to read 25+ comments and 1/2 star ratings about how it doesn't work on X. And then I gotta get it to work on X. And then people are like "it also doesn't work on Y". And when I finish patching up X, Y, and Z....I then see comments about how it doesn't install to SD card or something else!!!!!


    And of course nobody wants to buy it after all the work I put in....but get frustrated if I throw ads in. Just a bunch of :(
     
  3. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    Yes, exactly, people will think "2 is better than 1", just like people will think "iPhone is better than Android", not because it definitely is, not because it may be, but because that's what everyone says with no real definition of what is "better"

    You bring up an interesting point about AT&Ts service woes being overblown. You are right, I'm sure the people with iPhones aren't getting disconnected every day and are not struggling to make calls and are perfectly happy with their service. but that's not what we hear. The average consumer (see the one who doesn't actually do research on this stuff) hears "AT&T sucks...nothing but dropped calls!", and they believe it. So I am fairly certain there are VZW holdouts who are just waiting for the iPhone to come to VZW, as well as android users who only got the android because they didn't want to switch to what they perceived to be a "crappy network"...

    You think all the people who say AT&T sucks ever even had AT&T? Nope. They go by what they hear. And that's my point. No one cares about dual core, if it means they can have an iPhone. A person on VZW who wants an iPhone is not going to be swayed by "Oh but this android has dual core!!"...you're giving way too much credit to the average consumer. The sales records of the iPhone prove that. People are clearly choosing the crappier phone on the crappier network by your logic, and that should prove my argument that the consumer doesnt care about tech. What is there like 50 android phones or more? On all of the networks? And the iPhone still has the lead? And you can admit I'm sure that their sales will increase quite nicely when an LTE iPhone is released. If everyone took the time to research and learn about a product, many companies would be out of business.
     
  4. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    Precisely, because that's EXACTLY what the value-oriented buyer does in the PC market, eventhough Mac has much the same appeal, reputation for ease of use, and brand recognition as the IPhone. A user doesn't have to be technically savvy to compare specs and see the non-Apple hardware is considerably better value. There's absolutely no reason to believe the smartphone market is going to play out any differently.

    Yes, there are IPhone holdouts on VZW, but I know a lot of people who either wanted a smartphone a few years ago or who wanted the IPhone and tolerate AT&T. There is not a large VZW smartphone contingent holding out for an IPhone. There's no logical or rational reason to believe otherwise. I've been beating that like a drum - the fact there are "so many dissatisfied AT&T" IPhone users proves AT&T service has not been the deterrent many claim it to be. The fact that Sprint has gotten a bunch of EVO users and a fair amount of VZW switchers also speaks to the power of 4G service.

    People are grossly overestimating the willingness of smartphone holdouts to pay a premium for Apple. There is no business model out there that shows late adopters are ever anything more than value shoppers. They don't pay premiums for brand.

    Sure, there will be some switchers (more from BB), but on non-tech boards I'm on I have seen very few (make that none, although there are some here) who are unhappy with Android and none are considering switching. There are a lots of reasons to believe switching platforms has convenience and real $ cost and the users are going to be mostly entrenched.
     
  5. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    People always lose me when they use the phrase "I know a lot of people"...no...you don't. You really and truly don't. I hate teaching math, but VZW has 90+ million customers. Their smartphone customers are what like 25 million I think? (Correct me if I'm wrong) To know 1% of them, you'd have to know 900,000 people or 250,000 people. I think I'm correct in saying that you don't know that many people. To assume that the few people that you know, or seen posting on a tech blog/forum equal the whole is strange. Even if you want to say you're using statistics, you'd still not have anywhere near a sample size necessary to make a valid assumption. No matter how you want to slice it, you don't know how many holdouts or switchers there will be.

    The surveys I've seen show iPhone users are loyal, and extremely satisfied with the product. On the flip side, VZW users only 30 something percent are happy with their smartphone. That's a staggering statistic if I've ever seen one.

    And yes you are right, late adopters don't pray premiums for brands. But again, you're acting as if what they're going to be paying for was available for them always on their terms, and they just chose not to do it. I wouldn't leave Verizon for any phone, and I'm sure plenty of people share my sentiment. So they're not "late adopters" in the sense that they couldn't "adopt" an iPhone on VZW until now. People will pay for the phone, and it will outsell everything else that is being offered, as it has done for the past 4 years. There is no reason whatsoever why Apple would suddenly struggle for sales when it opens up its customer base to another 90 million users.
     
  6. cereal killer

    cereal killer Administrator
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    Consumers are fickle. To assume the current trend will continue in the face of the changing market is irresponsible. You are basing your "facts" on assumptions. "Since it has been this way it will be that way"

    A year or 2 ago I would have agreed. Will the trend continue? Maybe. But to say unequivocally that Android stands no chance is an outlandish statement.

    I do agree that if it's released on VZW's network it will sell VERY well. Thats a moot point. BUT will it maintain it's popularity/trendiness? The answer is.....NOBODY KNOWS because the market is changing and thats a fact.

    Android IS gaining momentum and what was once trendy/popular (iPhone) could easily fall out of favor.

    I'm just trying to point out to you that you are not seeing or considering the changing battlefield. It's sheer arrogance to discount the formidable opponent known as Android.
     
  7. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    I'm absolutely not discounting Android. I will never switch to an iPhone even if it shoots lasers out of its camera haha...I love my android phone and have no intention of trying any other OS ever again.

    That being said, everyone is talking about android's momentum and it's sales as if they're shocked. What do you expect when it is clearly the only (currently) competitor to iPhone, is available on all networks, comes in like 50 varieties, and has both cheap and expensive varieties? Before the iPhone came to VZW everyone can argue that saying "if" and "assuming" is a non-starter, but it's going to happen now. Android and Verizon will be head to head on the biggest network in the country. At that point the numbers are not going to lie, and I hope the people who continue to bash Apple will admit it then.

    I don't want an iPhone because I like being able to customize my phone. My OG Droid is the most fun I've ever had with a phone, ever haha. If I get bored of it, I make a new theme, or I flash a new ROM, or I flash someone else's theme. I know I won't have as much fun on an iPhone. But I also know that the 50,000 or so people on droidforums (and again, not everyone on this site even are going to stick with android) who use an android are not the majority of VZW customers, smartphone customers or even average customers.
     
  8. kodiak799

    kodiak799 Gold Member

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    Yes, I have a degree in statistics, in fact. To say there's a "large amount of switchers" or a bunch of holdouts despite virtually no evidence, even in a sample of 50 or a 100, is enough to contradict you hypothesis, assuming it's a random sample. If there's a large amount, as you claim, even a small random sample should have easily a half dozen or more, and I just haven't seen that anywhere. I'm not saying it's 0, but random observation offers statisical significance to conclude it's nothing near the numbers you want to believe, not to mention basic common sense that while the IPhone might be the best, it's not superior enough to dominate, especially as more value-conscious consumers come into the mix.

    I saw the survey you are citing. If I recall correctly, it was worded funny and a statement from the survey company was actually issued saying the results were being misinterpreted. The conclusion you offered there was incorrect. Less than complete satisfaction is also not evidence for a conclusion that people want to and will switch.

    Here's a recent survey from Nielsen showing Android and IOS neck-and-neck in terms of desirability:
    Nielsen Study Finds iPhone And Android To Be “Most Desired” Smartphone Platforms – iPhone Hacks

    "Among current smartphone users, though, Apple was found to enjoy a significant lead with over 35% of the surveyed users preferring an iPhone over rival handsets." - and that's how surveys can be misleading. There is only one IPhone. But considering a different Android handset because of new tech or whatever is not a vote of no-confidence in Android but merely reflects the options Android users have and the ease to switch because it's not a new platform. Further, what's interesting about that is CURRENT smartphone users - Apple is 28% of the smartphone market, give or take, so only 7% of the other 72% prefer IPhone, or about 1 in 10, which is again much lower than the number you'd have me believe. Of that 10%, I'd argue switching costs probably cuts that number in half, or at least well less than 10% for Android (but higher for BB and others).

    Heck, would I score the OG Droid a 5 out of 5? No, I'm annoyed it doesn't have more ram. That doesn't mean I'm dissatisfied or unhappy with Android. But I suspect I'd be more demanding and less forgiving of my Droid than IPhone users. It's also just a phone to me, a business tool, so the brand isn't influencing my evaluation.
     
  9. jroc

    jroc Silver Member

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    czerdrill, I have a question or some questions for u :

    On AT&T, The Captivate had decent numbers, no where near iPhone sales but it did ok. What other Android phone was available on AT&T that would be considered on the Captivate level?

    Does AT&T market Android phones according to their level? Mid range, low end, high end?

    I feel Verizon has the best total Android line up of high end, mid range phones. The iPhone will sell lots, theres no doubting that. But the Android line up Verizon will have, I feel they will be ok. Whats really gonna happen is we are gonna see just how powerful the Apple, iPhone name really is.

    If it has staggering numbers, Apple, iPhone brand recognition ftw.

    If it doesnt, consumers that a actually decide for themselves what they want ftw. And not "just because its an iPhone" Especially if the iPhone prices stay the same and you still have BOGO deals for Android, $100 off deals, etc. In today's economy phones for 1 cent are nothing to sneeze at. lol

    If it doesnt, Android brand recognition ftw. I keep saying this....this is 2011, not 2008. Major strides for the OS and the hardware Android runs on has been made. Like we cant discount the Apple, iPhone mystic.... we also cant discount the Android phenomenon thats happening right now.

    And I must throw this out there again.......dont sleep on WP7......
     
  10. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    I don't understand why people think that I'm saying that Android is going to disappear. I never said that. If anything it's the iPhone bashers that are downplaying iOS's effect on VZW. Android is here to stay and its going nowhere anytime soon. I am saying that the iPhone is going to outsell android on Verizon. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. I'm not saying every android owner will switch, I'm not saying there will be a mass bonfire of android phones in all the major cities of the US, I'm not saying that Google will call a press conference and announce that they have stopped developing android.

    I'm talking to the people who are suggesting that Apple, a company who has had no problem whatsoever setting sales record after sales record after sales record with every iteration of the iPhone is suddenly not going to be able to match or surpass those records when they add 90 million users to their customer base. Are 100% going to switch? No. Are 50%? No. Are 20%? No. Are 10%? Probably no to that either. The point of the matter is that 10% don't have to switch for iPhone to outsell Android, because there will be plenty of people who leave at&t, and plenty of people who are holding out on a smartphone until the iPhone arrives.

    Every analyst known to man is predicting sales in excess of 9 million for a VZW iPhone. Call me crazy, but I put more weight in their analyses than that of a few obscure people on an android forum haha...
     
  11. OneTenderRebel

    OneTenderRebel Silver Member

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    I drew the duck blue because I had never seen a blue duck before and to be honest with you I wanted to see a blue duck.

    sent from the great depths of my phones internet (thanks Al Gore)
     
  12. czerdrill

    czerdrill Silver Member

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    So what is your sample size then? How many people do you "know" that are not going to switch, or are not going to get the iPhone as a new customer?

    You say you have a degree in statistics, but have you forgotten how to calculate sample size?

    Again, correct me if I'm wrong, I don't have a degree in statistics, just trying to remember what I was taught in school...

    If you 90,000,000 customers and want a confidence level of 95% with an interval of 5, you'd need a sample size of 384 people. Of those people, with an interval of 5 you'd need about 45% to say they would not switch or get an iPhone. That's 173 people. Can you say, honestly, that you know 173 people that would not switch? Honestly? I don't even think I could name 173 people I know, let alone discussed phones with, with any kind of speed...(please correct me if I calculated that wrong)

    The people that you "know" are undoubtedly people who work with you, your family, your friends, who probably share the same love for android as you. That's a biased group, and not a real reflection of any sample. Or are you suggesting that you've approached randoms in the street and asked their opinion?

    You say that "you" have not seen that anywhere, and I can tell you that I have seen people say they'll switch, or have been holding out. In fact, off the top of my head I can name 5 people that I know who think that (3 of which have android phones). I'm sure if I asked more people, I'd get more people who agreed to switch. So does your sample somehow trump mine? Or your survey somehow discredit mine? The problem is our samples are not random, and in order to get an accurate representation they have to be. You can't ask your coworker who told you all about android and how great it is, whether he'd switch to iPhone (not saying you did, it's an example)

    It's not...you're right. But you can't possibly be suggesting that it's evidence that they won't switch right? If I was a betting man, I'd probably go with the bet that they would switch if they're less satisfied, then they wouldn't. Again, that doesn't mean they will, but you alluded to common sense in your reply...where is the common sense here? If I'm not satisfied with a product, wouldn't common sense tell you I'd have a desire to switch to a product that I perceived as better? Or does common sense not apply when the argument is on the other side?
     
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