POLL: Are you getting the Verizon iPhone

Discussion in 'Non-Android Smart Phones' started by modified, Jan 8, 2011.

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  1. chkmate
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    chkmate Silver Member

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    No, don't feel like downgrading. Would rather use one of my old Razr's :)

    //Tap'd on CM8's DX w/DF app\\
     
  2. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    It's already been commented and discussed many times the difference are virtually indistinguishable to the naked eye unless you hold it 12 inches from your face. The difference ain't all that significant to be honest. Really, I'd care more about the IPhone camera vs. the D1.

    The new phones coming out here over the next few months have equivalent displays and much beyond that is honestly overkill. My statement stands true - people are about to get hooked on a 2-yr contract and pay more for 6-month old tech than they would for new, better tech with 1-yr contracts.
     
  3. SmashedPumpkins
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    SmashedPumpkins Member

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    Well shoot! My wife and I just got the go ahead yesterday that we're both ready for upgrades. I have a feeling my wife is going to want the iPhone and we'll now have to wait. :| She's not really tech savy and the iPhone is very user friendly.
     
  4. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    Well, NEW acquisition rates are slowing, or more accurately Android has been running away. Consider Android went from basically nill in a little over a year to nearly the same market share as the IPhone. LTE IPhones won't be out until Jun'12, and I think it takes a big hit in those markets.

    People like choice and variety. And eventually they get wise to the fact that they don't really have to pay a premium when a near perfect substitute is $50-$100 cheaper, and often with better tech. This is precisely the reason everyone doesn't buy a Mac.

    I mean, really, you gotta lock into a 2-yr contract for the IPhone? Even if I was considering that, 2yrs is like a death sentence with the pace of tech in this market. And I'm someone who used to roll in every 2-3 years and just grab a free NE2, not I can't wait to get off my 2-yr deals.
     
  5. jroc
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    jroc Silver Member

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    Just to try to clarify, isnt it 30%of how many ppl voted? Its over 159,000 users here. (wow that number grew since April of last year...lol)

    It is some new faces for ppl that mentiion wanting an iPhone tho..lol Its a good sign for Android the still thinking numbers. That means of the ppl that voted they are actually thinking and not just going for the name or Apple, iPhone mystic.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  6. czerdrill
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    czerdrill Silver Member

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    Well they've been slowing because, and I believe it was you who said it (forgive me if i'm wrong), that anyone who wanted an iphone on AT&T has already gotten one. So now Apple opens up its product to 93 Million more people. I have a hunch that there will be a pretty good number of new acquisitions.

    Yes people like choice and variety, absolutely. But, if people actually did research on their products before purchasing, many companies would be out of business. People more so buy on hype and marketing. You dont make the decision to buy an iPhone because you think the addition of the retina display was an awesome and sound hardware choice by apple, you buy it because "OMG, so many apps, and the song in that commercial was so catchy!!"....it's sad (maybe pathetic?) but it's true. that's the stuff that sells, and not specs.

    I see them selling millions of new phones to customers who've never had a smartphone, and I see millions more switching (either from AT&T or from Android). I dont think 9-10 million total is unreasonable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's more (far more?) than that...
     
  7. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    I said most people who wanted an IPhone had already GONE to AT&T, so it's actually far less than 93M potential new IPhone users. I mean, AT&T gets a bad rap, but it works for a lot of people, too. Maybe 1/4 of that 93M want an IPhone, but it's actually much much lower than that because many settled on Android and not nearly as many will switch. So cut 18M in half, but then not actually all of those people want smartphones (it's more like 1/2 of 1/4 of maybe 30M total). I think 2.5M is low, but 5-6M extra sales for Apple seems reasonable (higher still if the smartphone market doubles again this year, which seems aggressive). If you remove switchers, Android will outsell IPhone this year. It's a numbers game and it's inevitable. 40% of new handsets and now they going to get love from AT&T? The elephant in the room is the vPhone will hurt Android, but there's probably a much bigger opportunity for Android at AT&T.

    I think you grossly undersell the buying experience for smartphones. People have grown comfortable shopping for PC's, HDTV's...now you're talking dropping $200-$300 on a smartphone and if people are just going to buy ignorantly as you claim that won't continue for long with smartphones becoming mainstream. That's not a trivial amount of cash for most people so expect a little more of an informed purchase.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  8. czerdrill
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    czerdrill Silver Member

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    ah ok sorry for the misquote there. Ok, but as I mentioned, the iPhone sells year after year and sells more year after year. No iPhone has sold less than its predecessor. So you're suggesting that 2011 is suddenly the year that the consumer wises us and doesn't buy the iPhone in droves? I find it hard to believe. Obviously I can't predict the future, nor can any analyst, but what they work on is history and history shows the iPhone is going to sell millions upon millions of units when it's launched on Verizon.

    If it does worse on VZW then it did on AT&T, then the analysts will have some new history to work with...until now, history is dictating that when Apple releases a product (I know it's not new, but it is new for VZW), it will sell...millions.

    I don't buy the "they would have gone to AT&T already" argument either. As is evident today itself, there are people here on this very forum saying they've been "waiting forever" for the iPhone to come to VZW. I think it's a safe bet that there are many more out there like that. If people on a droid-centric forum say they will switch, what makes you think that others won't? That's not a small number...
     
  9. UNC
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    UNC Active Member

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    Yes, 30% of how many people voted....
    WTH is an Apple mystic though? Is that a device? Or is it a soothsayer who works for Apple?

    I'm not trying to be funny, I just really can't figure out that last part. "That means of the ppl that voted they are actually thinking and not just going for the name or Apple, iPhone mystic"
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  10. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    No, it's possible for the IPhone to increase sales while also losing market share, and that's precisely what will happen as the smartphone market continues to grow 50-100% (though it has to slow significantly at some point). That's what I'm saying is going to happen. IPhone gets a lot of sales from upgrades with every model, but if you take out upgrades you start to see that Android has been FAR outselling it.

    Customer satisfaction (or should I say, dissatisfaction) at AT&T are between 25-40%. That's not insignificant, I never said there aren't VZW customers waiting for the vPhone. But it's not 93M like you stated, it's far far far less than that. Because A) people can and have tolerated AT&T and B) it's a problem for maybe 1/4 or 1/3 OF SMARTPHONE users (which is like 1/4 or something of the cell market).

    In other words, whatever the smartphone market was at VZW (well less than 93M, call it 20-30M or whatever), only 25-40% of those really wanted an IPhone (otherwise they long since went to or tolerated AT&T). But most have now bought an Android. If 20% would switch (a number I think would be high), you are talking 2-3M. Then there's the normal growth that the IPhone will capture which is how you get to the 5-6M range in additional sales. They sold 14M last year at AT&T. They aren't doubling sales going to VZW. They'll sell somewhere between 16-20/22M depending on how the smartphone market grows. But I bet Android share is pushing north of 40% by end of the year (not new sales, total share). Plus there's a big boost this year coming from upgrades you didn't really get last year, also a boost from LTE.

    There's not this huge untapped VZW market for the IPhone like you think, that would defy common sense and the analysts mostly agree with me.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  11. czerdrill
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    czerdrill Silver Member

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    I don't know the analyses I've read estimate between 9-13 million total sales (whether upgrades, or new)....and I agree...market share is clearly not going to skyrocket into the heavens. I think apple will get a slight edge and android will continue to flourish and it'll stay like that. and you think the opposite. either way, from a strictly sales perspective i think the iPhone 4 on VZW can outsell or almost match the iPhone4 on AT&T...when I say it out loud it does sound like it defies common sense haha, but I don't know, we'll see I guess...

    I just think there are more people who have been holding out, whether it be on a smartphone completely, or those who plan to switch, than you think. We'll know in a couple of months once the numbers start pouring in.

    I will say one thing though...if market share is going to change, I think it's going to change in Apple's favor. I don't believe it will change, but if someone told me yes it will definitely change I'd give the nod to apple, especially when the LTE version comes out.
     
  12. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    See, I just can't get to a big expansion of IPhone share rationally. It simply isn't going to double it's share (I'm talking installed base) on VZW because inspite of AT&T's service it's not an issue for 2/3 and most will have switched already. So if I take 1/3 of the AT&T installed base, call it 28% share, you could see upwards of 38% total share. However, it will see a lot more competition at VZW and considerably more competition at AT&T, so instead of 10% maybe 5% taking it to 33%.

    Unless BB or WinMo step-up, Android is going to roll toward 40% share. It's already there (as far as new sales), of course the vPhone will bite into that but then expect Android to dominate LTE markets over the next 12 months or so - with AT&T and VZW (and Sprint 4G) that's a 3rd of the market that it will be very difficult of the IPhone (or any 3G phone, for that matter) to compete in.
     
  13. czerdrill
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    czerdrill Silver Member

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    no i know exactly what your saying, like i mentioned it does sound ridiculous when i say it out loud haha, but i guess given the history i'd think if any phone could do it it would be iPhone. we shall see what happens...
     
  14. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Silver Member

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    To be fair, 5% expansion to 33% is pretty significant. You could be right about this year, and the IPhone has the brand awareness and power to do what you say, this year perhaps. Longer-term though Android is going to steamroll forward. It's inevitable unless the dynamic changes in a significant way (i.e. more variety and choice from IPhone).

    But Android is already selling 40% to new smartphone users and it's numbers and competitiveness are only growing. And that's important in offsetting fragmentation, because you really can't talk about fragmentation in a vacuum ignoring market size. Look at the PC there's tons of fragmentation but the market is huge and it's a non-issue. It's ignored when talking about Android and people don't consider the PC fragmented, but there's still Windows 2000, Vista, Win7 and a few I'm forgetting, not to mention dozens of screen sizes and different hardware (and, heck, laptops and desktops). But the market is still large enough to deliver acceptable ROI's and that's what matters.

    Curious to see what's in store for the IP5. We can rule out LTE, but if it's an otherwise marginal upgrade the brand and premium pricing are definitely going to be tested. If they come out with docking capability of their own (don't think they will) and leverage the IPod and IPad, it could unbalance things.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  15. chained22
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    Droid all the way

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