New IDC Study Says Tablets to Surpass Desktop PC Sales This Year & Laptops in 2014

[dgstorm]

If you are in the PC industry, this must be a gloomy projection. A new study from research firm IDC indicates tablets are expected to finally outship desktop PCs in 2013, and are on track to surpass laptop PCs next year. Here's a quote with the details,

Tablets are due to outship desktops in 2013 and notebooks in 2014, while both of those PC segments will either lose ground or see relatively flat growth. The desktop market is expected to shrink consistently through 2017, when growth is expected to be -1%.

All told, IDC forecasts that companies will shift 190 million tablets worldwide this year, which would mark an annual growth of 48.7%, while smartphones shipments are expected to swell by 27.2% to 918.5 million units. Looking further ahead, the researcher says smart connected devices will reach shipments of 2.2 billion units and revenues of $814.3 billion in 2017, with tablet and smartphone growth tapering to 9.8% and 8.5%.

Last year, we predicted this would happen, as did several analysts across the industry. It's simply proof-positive that if you are a tech company and you aren't in mobile right now, you should be.

Thanks for the tip, cereal killer!

Source: TechSpot

 

[johnomaz]

So what, thats like saying the new Gameboy or PSP is going to outsell laptops. Its comparing apples to bananas. If anyone buys a tablet to use it for work processing and spreadsheets, they are idiots. If a person buys a laptop to play angry birds in through Chrome and Facebook, they are idiots too.

 

[gadgetrants]

To frame my comment: I have to confess that every year or two a "cool phrase" comes along that I ABSOLUTELY HATE and the phrase of the day is "disruptive technology." Pardon my rant but that's just stupid. All technology is disruptive, all technology improves and extends and sometimes even replaces previous technologies. (I'm obviously talking about meaningful tech, not silly stuff like Furby dolls.)

Admittedly what we've seen in the last 4-5 years is a rapid appearance of new ideas and tools that have caused major transformation. I also think the Google Glasses project will have a huge impact in the next two.

Still, industries evolve. Technology emerges and evolves. It's the nature of the beast. "Disruptive" technology didn't appear in 2007 -- it's been around since the wheel, fire, electricity, fertilizer, flight...you get the idea.

Oh, almost forgot! On point: it is amazing how fast tablets are displacing traditional PCs. Still, tablets and phones are mobile and content creation (I stubbornly insist) is not. I'm not saying, "There will always be a place for the desktop," but my crystal ball tells me that by 2020, there may be another technology in place that isn't a tablet or a phone, but also isn't a traditional PC. Maybe some kind of "place-free" computing, e.g., something like a full PC that can be "created out of thin air" anywhere by melding all the pieces we have now, e.g., projection video, cloud storage, mobile computing, etc. But there is A LOT that I do that I would never want to do on my cell phone or a tablet, regardless of computing power. If the desktop dies, whatever replaces it will need to preserve it's functionality.

-Matt

 

[dgstorm]

I agree wholeheartedly with everything you said Matt, especially the part about some new technology that could displace all desktops, laptops and tablets. The point of any PC is to be a tool... a tool to facilitate some form of productivity, interactivity, or creativity. The interface may change, but you could really argue that a tablet is really just a different form of PC. For right now, johnomaz is right. There are things you can do on a traditional desktop or laptop PC that is much harder to accomplish on a tablet. Programming, writing, rendering, etc. are accomplished much easier with the right tool, and at the moment, the best tool for that is the traditional PC.

Those lines are beginning to blur though. At some point, our PCs won't be desktops, or laptops, or tablets, or smartphones at all. Perhaps they will simply be biometric chips in our heads, or wallpaper that can act as a display and take both motion and verbal commands. Eventually we will be interacting with our devices and each other in ways that seem like Sci-Fi even now.

 

[gadgetrants]

Those lines are beginning to blur though. At some point, our PCs won't be desktops, or laptops, or tablets, or smartphones at all. Perhaps they will simply be biometric chips in our heads, or wallpaper that can act as a display and take both motion and verbal commands. Eventually we will be interacting with our devices and each other in ways that seem like Sci-Fi even now.

Just a quick thought: I was thinking about implanted chips the other day, and realized to communicate wirelessly they will have to use radio...AKA EM RADIATION. Maybe this is "guilt by association" but if we're concerned about carcinogenic effects of cell phones, it seems implanting a chip that sends/receives (even if, admittedly, the radiation is FAR below naturally-occurring levels) electromagenetic energy may be a bit controversial, if not dangerous.

-Matt

 

[eebvending]

That's what I've been thinking everytime I see an article proclaiming the death of the desktop.

I just purchased a new desktop. I have a smart phone and a tablet as well. In no way could I imagine only having the smart phone and tablet. A touch interface is not good for everything.

 

[dgstorm]

You may be right gadgetrants, but nowadays just living seems to be carcinogenic! I can't turn the (web)page without bumping into some article discussing what new fresh thing is likely to kill us quicker. :blink:

It will be interesting to see what the world looks like in 30 years after the multiple frequencies of wireless stuff has been bombarding us constantly. Maybe we will be a bunch of wired-up mutants with giant benign tumors full of nanotech designed to help us interact with each other. Or, maybe we might just figure out that these frequency waves of energy have simply been here all along, and all our technology does is tap into it in some meaningful way. This might derail the thread, but I think processed sugar is far more dangerous to human health than any piece of silicon based technology.