Gartner Predicts Android Tablets Will Stay Second to iPad for Next Five Years

Discussion in 'Android News' started by dgstorm, Apr 11, 2011.

  1. dgstorm
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    dgstorm Editor in Chief Staff Member Premium Member

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    Apparently, the marketing research firm, Gartner, has a crystal ball that tells them that the Apple iPad will remain the reigning king of tablets until at least 2015. They also predict that 'Andy' Tablets will continue playing 'catch-up' but will remain in second place after all that time. I'm sure the algorithmic analytics they use are very advanced, but predictions this far out are nothing more than 'tea-leaf reading'. It is interesting to postulate what will be happening, but it only took Android smartphones a couple of years to knock the iPhone off the top. The current crop of Android Tablets definitely need some improvement before they become truly competitive with the iPad, but Google has a tendency to improve things rather quickly. Ultimately, we will have to wait and see whether Gartner or Google can say... "I told you so."

    Share your perspective in the forums.

    Source: AndroidTablets.net via PhoneArena
  2. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    I think tablets in present form have a rather limited useful life. I say inside of 2 years, easily, tablets will just be dummy shells that smartphones plug into to serve as the guts (i.e. like the Atrix lapdock, which is surprising actually that it came first).

    There is limited difference right now in terms of specs between smartphones and tablets. Seems so natural and easy that you'll just slide in/plug in your phone, almost like an sd card, and go.
  3. OneTenderRebel
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    OneTenderRebel New Member

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    Its funny how when a research group predicts that Android will be the world dominator in 5 years its taken as Biblical truth but when the same thing happens with Apple its hogwash. I mean how can anyone see that far into the future. This is not pointed at the OP in particular, this has been something I have noticed for quite some time in any Android article written about market research. I am sure it happens on the Apple side too. I don't trust any research graph or statistic I see. They are all construed to the liking of the author.

    sent from the great depths of my phones internet (thanks Al Gore)
  4. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, did the article indicate it's hogwash? I only skimmed.

    Was thinking about this the other day, and I honestly struggle to see the utility of tablets. I wonder how much of the IPad sales are driven by the fact there is that segment of Apple fans that would buy a slate rock, literally, if it was hip and cool.

    That's kind of the basis I see this being completely a reasonable projection. On the other hand, if tablets do catch fire as more than just a novelty I'd expect Android to surge rapidly. With more on Android handsets it just seems logical that Android tablets would quickly pass the IPad, I'd say by the end of next year. The Xoom is sort of like the D1 in that timeline, and there's a slate of tablets coming that I think will be better just as better phones than the D1 were out 9 months later or so.

    Like I said, I think the tablet "dock" is going to change everything. And that's where I could definitely see fragmentation hurting Android tablets (and perhaps indirectly, Android smartphones) simply because some Android phones won't have a dock and likely there will be no such thing as a universal dock.
  5. Snow02
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    Snow02 New Member

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    They're just taking current market trends and extrapolating. Android is on the move in the handset market. Apple all but owns the tablet market. Both of those are documented fact. I don't see any issues here.
  6. OneTenderRebel
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    OneTenderRebel New Member

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    I was speaking more of the "fan" reaction to these statistics. Like I said it goes both ways Apple and Android. I just don't trust any market research I see.

    As for your take on tabs being a novelty, its tough to say where I stand on that. I have had the same thought as you. For me personally the tablet doesn't do much but apparently for millions upon millions of others it does wonders. I am sure a good number of people did buy the ipad because it was the hip thing but I also think we as android users use that as an excuse far too often. I know many very tech savvy people who absolutely love their tablet and use them to their full potential.

    I do agree with you about the docking stations. That, to me anyway, is far more appealing.

    sent from the great depths of my phones internet (thanks Al Gore)
  7. Snow02
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    Snow02 New Member

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    The tablet dock may become an optional peripheral, yes. But it will be far from the norm. The utility in tablets is they are awesome for having around the house and on the road. But I agree, they're not well-suited for the work/school role....yet.

    A tablet on the coffee table is very hip, android or apple. The tablet will eventually become the piece of tech that ties the rest of the tech in your house together. It has enough screen real estate and can go anywhere. The detractors are just those that don't have one. I personally don't, yet. But I will. So will you. Anyone with the ability to purchase one will eventually have one. If you don't see this, you need to get your eyes checked.
  8. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    Ehhhh, when your phone is constantly with you I think dummy tablets are the future. Keeps the tablet from being as dated and would eliminate the need for additional connectivity since your phone already supplies that. I think having one set-up on a phone eliminating duplicate set-ups or syncing on a tablet or PC is a superior advantage as well.

    I'm getting one only because I need something ultra-portable and only because Asus will have a keyboard dock. To me it's a complete novelty with little application beyond video, some games and surfing without a keyboard. I don't believe that replaces the home laptop and the utility is rather limited (beyond the hip/cool factor) unless you travel or just out and about a lot. You have a smartphone and a home pc/laptop - the actual practical/necessary use for a tablet is very small.
  9. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    Smartphones will become 3 in 1 devices with optional dummy docks. I guarantee it. There is no reason to pay for the processor, ram, LTE chips, etc.. 2 or 3 times.

    17M tablets sold last year, which pails in comparison to the 100M+ pc's sold. Quite honestly I'll be shocked if that prediction of 70M tablets this year holds true.

    I'm travel a lot and so I've identified a need for something much more portable, and only because I feel that I can do productive work on something like the Eee pad (because of the keyboard) for the relatively limited time I'm traveling away from home or the office. And my laptop is really a desktop replacement and just too hot to use as a laptop, so I'm looking for something affordable to surf with (and, again, the keyboard is pivotal in choosing a tablet over a netbook or cheaper laptop).

    I don't doubt that a lot of buyers have justified their tablet purchase. You will not convince me it's anything more than splurging on a luxury that is really completely unnecessary.
  10. Snow02
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    Snow02 New Member

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    Refrigerators aren't necessary. TVs aren't necessary. You get the point. They fill a market demand, as you've aptly demonstrated. They're about to be everywhere.
  11. Sweettooth
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    Sweettooth New Member

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    Android and Apple have been butting heads for a while now and I think things are just starting to get interesting. With Apple's experience and competitor crippling marketing techniques and Google advancing faster than Skynet, I highly doubt either of them will be accepting second place very consistently.
  12. OneTenderRebel
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    OneTenderRebel New Member

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    That's very true. Plus the competition is great for the consumer and the brand alike. They fuel eachother on price's and specs while making their money trying to fight for top spot.
  13. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    LOL, horrible example. The problem with tablets is they aren't as portable and don't do, um calling, as well as smartphones and aren't much more portable and not quite as capable as laptops or even netbooks.

    Tablets are more like getting custom rims on your car. Entirely unnecessary but some people like them. Chalk up the explosion to the brilliance of Apple and their marketing (key point, because Apple didn't invent the tablet but most don't realize this because other tablets were as pointless as they were useless). Any strategy person would look at tablets and say there's no compelling reason to buy them (at least in their present form, attachable/bluetooth keyboards change the game once tablets get a bit more capable and THEN are on par with laptops and have an edge).
  14. yahwarrior
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    yahwarrior New Member

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    Android will be in all of your other electronic devices from your refrigerator to your car because it's free, so eventually Apple will succumb to Google's version of Skynet. It's just a matter of time.
  15. MoeDaddy
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    MoeDaddy Member

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    Tablets are not a must have item, they are redundant at this point but they are cheap enough that they are an impulse buy. That said when the Asus and Toshiba come out I'll be getting both so who an I to talk...
  16. patfactorx
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    patfactorx Member

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    There was a prediction 4 years ago that iOS would dominate the mobile space and we know what happened with that one.
  17. bazar6
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    bazar6 Premium Member Theme Developer Premium Member

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    5 years?? How much were they paid to say that? You can't tell trends like this with a luxury product that is still fairly new (iOS on tablets have only been about a year, Andy only a couple of months [I don't count Samsung Galaxy Tabs because they aren't running 3.0, which all new Andy tabs will be running]). There's still going to be a lot of catch up from Andy, but I don't you can accurately predict what the race is going to be like in 5 years.
  18. bazar6
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    bazar6 Premium Member Theme Developer Premium Member

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    ...but I don't think* you can accurately...
  19. MoeDaddy
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    MoeDaddy Member

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    This is just a trending forcast and they will update and refresh it as data changes, sure these things are never right but they are fun and interesting to read and follow...
  20. kodiak799
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    kodiak799 Well-Known Member

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    That's a good point, but I'm not sure that really applies to the average person. Most people don't have $500 in disposable income for such an "impulse buy". Of course, that has never stopped Americans and their credit cards.

    Just very hard to imagine these outselling PC's, which lower end laptops and mid-tier desktops are available at the same price point (and cheaper). Not to mention corporations make up a good chunk of PC buyers and I don't see them jumping into this significantly, at least not for awhile.

    You could also argue PC's have been selling 100M+ for years, and not something people need to replace every year while there's virtually no installed base for tablets.

    Now the new Intel mobile chips will supposedly enable dual-booting, and that would be something. If MS ever gets their act together I imagine they could retain most of their installed PC base as that eventually shifts to tablets.