2015: Android #1, Appl... wait, no, Windows Phone 7 #2?

[jntdroid]

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A report released today by global technology market analyst IDC states something that isn't a big surprise - the global smartphone market will grow by about 50% in 2011 - and something that is a bit surprising...

The chart above shows it all, but in summary, IDC believes that by 2015 Android will have nearly half of global smartphone market share, and Windows Phone 7 will have the #2 spot at roughly 20%.

It's good to see, and not a surprise, that they think Android will continue to grow. Clearly Android's strategy is taking them in the direction of touching as many people as possible through multiple manufacturers. The "openness" of Android will continue to be attractive to the makers of these devices, as they can do essentially whatever they want with it.

Windows Phone 7 at #2 though? Well, I don't believe that's quite as shocking as it might look initially. Their strategy is similar to Android's (and differs from iOS and Blackberry) in that they will be using multiple manufacturers. That alone should help boost its growth. Add to that the Nokia partnership, and this might not be too far fetched after all.

What do you think? Is the Android forecast too aggressive? Is the WP7 forecast absurd? (please try and be unbiased!)

 

[johnomaz]

I think Android's is spot on. Whether it is about half the market or not, they will be number one. Windows 7 Mobile though, I have no idea. I've haven't even seen a phone with it yet. iOS, ya. Its a dying beast. Sure, they were the first in a market that didn't really have any truely smart smartphones. But then they decided to stay where they were, progress very slowly and when competition came on the scene, thought their marketshare would stay with them. They were wrong. iOS will disappear soon enough.

 

[New2u]

Unless Windows can figure out what it's doing wrong they won't be #2 nor even close.

 

[OneTenderRebel]

it's not april 1st yet is it? Cause this has to be some sort of joke....

 

[SkullOne]

Actually, it makes a lot of sense and if true I wouldn't be the least surprised.

We're already seeing the 80's all over again with Microsoft vs. Apple errrr....Google vs. Apple. Open vs. Closed. Open will always win. Unless Apple does something crazy with iOS like a true notification system, widgets, real multi-tasking, and open it to other manufacturers it will fall to the wayside and become a niche market just like Macs are.

Apple's business model and culture make them destined to forever sit in the 10-15% range of market share and that's not a bad thing. They will continue to make money hand over fist which is what matters in the long run.

WP7 is a great platform and I could see them in spot number 2 but only if MS gets their act together to properly update and support the platform. MS could take a good chunk of business users from Blackberry due to the integration with Outlook. Again though it depends on updating and support of the platform.

 

[hookbill]

I know that Windows has a huge following, but I'm sorry I just don't even like the looks of their phone. I have no faith in their OS and that's based on my experience of working with them since 1986. I admit I haven't worked with Windows 7 and I have heard good things. But #2 over ios? Just no way.

 

[Rindaen]

These projections are so far off base.

Not a popular view around here I know , However
I see Apple continuing to gain market share.
iOS still has room to grow. To the people that think Ios will disappear i think you are very wrong with that thought.

Android. I think if anything the manufacturers are starting to look for other alternatives so they can differentiate the devices.
Hopefully the software and hardware work better for future devices.

WP7 @ #1? ROFLMFAO

 

[jntdroid]

I think Apple's biggest "downfall" (and I use that loosely) will end up being the fact that it's tied to one device. No longer is the iPhone a revolutionary device, in and of itself. There are solid, ergonomic touchscreens all over the place now - and the smoothness of their UI isn't due to the phone, but the OS. The hardware game has been simplified to a cat and mouse game that goes back and forth every few months. One manufacturer releases a phone with some new spec, a few months later the others do the same thing and try and have something special on their devices.

If Apple ever branched out and allowed iOS on other devices, even just a few select ones, that would go a long way in broadening their reach and helping them keep up. It's all about the OS and ecosystem now, and much less about the phone itself. iOS is a solid OS. The Apple ecosystem is a great experience if you're all in. But the lack of diversity of multiple manufacturers, like Android and WP7 have, will hinder Apple from keeping up. And the "cool" factor alone won't be enough to make their once a year (or less now?) releases as big of a deal.

On WP7, I've used a couple devices, and it's a very solid and smooth experience, and has great potential as an OS. As has been stated, the key is how MS handles it...

 

[dafischman]

I think the growth for android is reasonable, I believe RIM is going to fall alot further and faster, especially once WP7 gets all of the kinks out due to the excellent ability to integrate with business email and software systems.

In regards to the ugly phones, once Nokia gets involved with releasing some phones, I'm sure the styling will be better and many people love Nokia.

I agree that iOS will likely stay around where they are currently. You'll continually see the same niche group of users with some defecting to other phones for things Apple won't offer and others going to iOS to be part of the Apple crowd. But they will continue to make money, that is for sure.

Android just has too much to offer, and can support a much larger range of users due to its customizability. Phone manufacturers can create phones at all price points, offering options in screen sizes and hard keyboards vs soft keyboards, and gaming oriented phones such as Sony's. These are all things that iOS just won't be willing to do. They offer 1 device with everything they believe should be on it, and that's what you get regardless of what you want.

Josh

 

[jntdroid]

Trust me when I tell you that Windows Phone 7 does not need to have the "winblows" mantra tagged along with it... I get that, but it's not fair to the OS as it's a pretty revamped experience from anything prior, and definitely than Windows itself.

 

[cereal killer]

Windows 7 is a great platform. If MS starts supporting it you can bet it will be sitting up top in the #2 position. I never have been a winmo fan but 7 is a giant step in the right direction. People knocking it need to spend some time on it.

Skull One said it nicely and put iOS and the iPhone into the niche market. That's precisely it. The trend is already moving in that direction.

Droid--->ether--->this thread

 

[mrbworm]

Sounds like IDC took a payoff from Redmond. Wouldn't be the first time that an "independent" analyst firm acted on profit motives.

 

[UNC]

Will Android be #1? Probably, all the cheap-o giveaway phones will be Android by 2015.
Will Windows be #2? No way.

iOS will continue to be #2, and RIM will fend off Microsoft with QNX.
QNX is supposed to run Android apps as well as RIM super-apps.
The app gulf between those 3 and Windows will be too big for MS to overcome.

 

[CletusVanDam]

I really don't see WP7 gaining 21% market share by 2015, it just has no momentum whatsoever behind it. I've played with WP7 at BestBuy and it was an easy-to-use device, but once again, no one is even talking about it. The update interval from M$ is sad too. Kind of like when Palm had WebOS, they're basically letting it die by leaving the OS to get stale already.

Everyone I know has an Android, iPhone, or Blackberry. The friends with Blackberry's are just waiting for their contracts to be up so they can get an Android or iPhone.

I think by 2015 it will look more like this:

50% - Android - Gains from people converting to a smartphone for the first time and Symbian and Blackberry.

20% - iOS - Gains from people converting to a smartphone for the first time and Symbian and Blackberry.

15% - WinMo - Gains from Blackberry and Symbian

10% - Blackberry - Loses users to Android and iOS

5% - WebOS, Symbian, etc. - Loses users because Nokia is dumping Symbian for WP7. WebOS.... is just "WebOS" no one cares about it anymore because Palm let it die by not updating it and engaging enough developers. HP might successfully revive it, but I doubt it, because once again, no one really cares about this OS.

 

[adsfa34]

Because of the openness of Android, I do see it growing and understandably to a 40%+ market share. Mainly because carriers can get the OS with fewer costs and restrictions than iOS, so it's in the carriers' best interests, so it's what we'll see the most of on the shelves.

I think that things will get increasingly complex, however, when Android becomes SO commonplace (already happening) that manufacturers will customize the OS beyond all recognition in attempts to differentiate, which may cause stratification of the market, potentially contributing to cannibalization.

I also see Apple continuing to lead the pack with innovation, but in the #2 spot because of the carrier restrictions and hardware limitations (only one device). Apple has been a company of revolutionary ideas for years, and there's no evidence of it slowing down. Steve Jobs, who may be regarded by some as a borderline lunatic, is a visionary nonetheless. His successor, whoever he/she may be, will likely maintain those same characteristics. If, on the other hand, they turn Apple over to a group of just "businesspeoeple" ... Apple is screwed. Apple *needs* the jeans and black turtleneck with the New Balance sneakers during a keynote, not a suit.