Why The Verizon iPhone Rumors are True—CDMA iPhone Due in January

[Shadez]

Why The Verizon iPhone Rumors are True—CDMA iPhone Due in January


by Steve Cheney on Aug 8, 2010



We’ve been hearing Verizon iPhone rumors for years now.

It’s to the point that no one really believes the rumors anymore, since analysts and pundits have cried wolf so many times. But this time looks to be different due to some key dynamics in the semiconductor value chain, and I am going to go on record to say Verizon will be selling an iPhone this coming January.

Here’s why:

Smartphones like the iPhone are built from a collection of components, which are sourced individually from suppliers—e.g. the iPhone 4’s cellular baseband (the core chipset used in mobile phones to handle voice and data communications) comes from Infineon and its GPS chipset from Broadcom.

Component purchases and manufacturing starts don’t typically reveal strong links to individual handset OEMs. But in some cases components have a DNA which is traceable through the supply chain. For example, iPad rumors became much more concrete when we knew Apple was procuring large LCD screens.

For typical refreshes of GSM-based iPhones (the model that works on AT&T’s network), suppliers and component product families remain fairly consistent between models. But a Verizon compatible iPhone would be CDMA-based, which would make its DNA distinct from other iPhones and traceable through the supply chain.

The dominant supplier of CDMA chipsets is Qualcomm, the largest fabless chip company in the world. Apple has never procured baseband chipsets from Qualcomm before.
If Qualcomm were to plan for orders from Apple, there would be a ripple effect through the supply chain. It works like this: Apple’s iPhone forecast links to Qualcomm’s CDMA chipset forecast, which then trickles down to their foundry partner TSMC, who uses the forecast to plan wafer starts.

A CDMA-based iPhone would likely sell 2-3 million units in the first few weeks (modeled after iPhone 4’s oversubscribed launch). The lead-time associated with upside in the semiconductor world is huge, sometimes as long as 26 weeks (supply is tight right now so this rule is in effect and Apple had major supply problems with the iPhone 4 and iPad).

Sources with knowledge of this entire situation have assured me that Apple has submitted orders for millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets for a Verizon iPhone run due in December. This production run would likely be for a January launch, and I’d bet the phone is nearly 100% consistent with the current iPhone 4 (with a fixed internal insulator on the antenna).

I can’t say with 100% accuracy that an iPhone will hit Verizon store shelves in January, but all of the signals point that way, and it would give Verizon’s CEO some interesting things to talk about in his CES keynote (though he may have to refrain as CES comes before Macworld, Apple’s historical launching pad). I may be proven wrong, but based on my history dealing with components and selling to Apple, a Verizon-compatible iPhone looks to be a done deal.
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Contributor Steve Cheney is an entrepreneur and formerly an engineer & programmer specializing in web and mobile technologies.


http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/08/ver...phone-january/

[Backnblack]

That will be a sad day....

[drpurp]

If it were to be released, would that mean a shift of priorities for Verizon in terms of Andr-- ahem, smartphones? =(

[Hugh Jass]

Wait, I just read somewhere that AT&T owns exclusive rights to the iPhone through 2012?

The hell is going on here...

[lumpysherman]

As a Mac user and a VZW customer I personally won't be moving to the iphone. I used to always want one since I firstgot my ipod touch especially after getting the storm but since moving to Moto Droid and rooting there's not a chance in hell I'm moving too the iphone.
This is my droid, there are many like it but this one is mine. I am nothing without my droid....

Moto droid FRG22 - ROOTED

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

[Backnblack]

They could be giving them away with $100 cash and I wouldn't move to the iphone.

[tp76]

That will be a sad day....

Indeed it would be, stick with Android Verizon

[pc747]

Android 100%, if you really feel the iphone urge, just get an ipod touch and tether it off ur droid. My brother sent me his and Im doing that.........and after getting rid of my iphone in november and going android for 8.5 mnths then seeing the itouch, apple sucks compared to android. Other then playing music (because of the poor designed droid headphone jack) the iphone serves no other purpose other then a table prop.

[azules9780]

I like that Marine Corps and FMJ quote there. I agree, I'm all for people to have choice and that includes the iPhone. I worry about a few things though. 1) the increased traffic and demand on an already taxed infrastructure. In no way do I look forward to VZW being brought to it's knees by too much traffic. 2) I love the development and rapid-fire launching of new things for Android. I wonder how much it will continue to advance in all aspects such as apps, phone peripherals(docks,stereo etc.), and more awesome phones overall that seem tp constantly be on the horizon.

[a73]

Comments from the OP's posted link point out that the iPhone might go to Sprint instead of Verizon, or maybe for a CDMA iPad. Both carriers are CDMA, and Sprint desperately needs the iPhone to survive, Verizon doesn't. I wonder how it will all turn out.