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Thread: Verizon iPhone. Jan/Feb 2011 Release *Rumor*

  1. Droid Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by czerdrill View Post
    I'm talking leaks, prototypes, something. It's like everyone knows, but no one really knows...we'll see I guess.
    I think the most credible thing is the channel checks, and I think that's what research analysts are relying on.

    A supplier can't hide/ignore/lie about a significant sales order when they give guidance. They can be cryptic about the source/buyer, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to put 2 and 2 together. Like I said, though, once consensus becomes "fact" it would be tough to find an analyst risking his career to swim upstream without concrete proof to the contrary.

    VZW wants the IPhone, Jobs has admitted waiting this long was a strategic mistake. And you have the IPad. So it's a near absolute certainty the IPhone is coming to VZW the only question is when.

    That said, there is probably a number that works for both AT&T and Apple to extend the exclusivity agreement. But that is probably not in Apple's long-term interests and I think they recognize that.
  2. Droid Sensei
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  3. Master Droid
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dusty View Post
    UNC and Vanilla Ice will be crushed by this news. Then again they may just ignore it and swear that Apple has AT&T by the short-nappies and will release it at CES anyway.

    I may as well start saying it now.

    I TOLD...
    I wont be crushed and I'm sure UNC wont either. I still believe it has a chance to be announced at CES but if not, oh well. I still am very interested in the HTC thunderbolt, I have been since BGR.com leaked it back in August. But verizon is going to have tons of lte phones for 2011. Ill get whatever phone catches my interest the most. iPhone or not.

    More rumors :

    http://www.electronista.com/articles...til.after.ces/

    Sent from my Droid using DroidForums App
  4. Master Droid
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    Then when that time they claim comes, they'll say in June as a CDMA iPhone 5 alongside the GSM one. It has been this way for the past 3-4 years.

    Sent from my Droid

    Proud Owner of a HTC Thunderbolt
    3/26/11 - Present

    Proud Owner of a Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1
    6/24/11 – Present
  5. Droid Sensei
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    LOL....That analyst is saying few defections from AT&T and some 10M switchers from Android and Blackberry. Personally I say no way on the latter, unless corporations pull a sudden and surprising shift and even then I think the IPhone at best captures 50% of BB switchers. Excluding corporate users, I don't think there are anywhere near 10M VZW BB users to switch, maybe more like 4-5M. If there are 9M Android users on VZW I'd be shocked if more than 1M switch to the IPhone (which is over 10% and a probably an aggressive assumption).

    Another analyst said pretty much the opposite, that VZW would only add 2.5M units in total to IPhone US sales. Seems low, but if you are only talking 6-7months maybe fairly reasonable.

    No one has a clue. The truth is probably somewhere in between, though I still think switching between platforms will be fairly insignificant but of course IPhone will do well holding share on new smartphone subscriber. There will be a significant number of AT&T switchers, but perhaps they will wait to avoid ETF and maybe not nearly as many are unhappy with AT&T service but an LTE IPhone might be too much to pass up.
  6. Droid Sensei
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    The numbers on who will switch and who won't, obviously no one knows until it happens. I tend to think a large number will switch (10M switchers from android and bb? probably not), but more than 10% of android, yes and 10M - 15M total iPhone users on VZW regardless of whether they were switching, coming from at&t, or new to smartphones is definitely feasible. The iPhone is going to be a huge deal on VZW. 4G or not, it will be a big draw and tons of people are going to buy it.
    Last edited by czerdrill; 12-30-2010 at 07:39 AM.
    Google Interview Q&A

    Apple CEO, Verizon COO
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  8. Droid Sensei
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    Quote Originally Posted by czerdrill View Post
    The numbers on who will switch and who won't, obviously no one knows until it happens. I tend to think a large number will switch (10M switchers from android and bb? probably not), but more than 10% of android, yes and 10M - 15M total iPhone users on VZW regardless of whether they were switching, coming from at&t, or new to smartphones is definitely feasible. The iPhone is going to be a huge deal on VZW. 4G or not, it will be a big draw and tons of people are going to buy it.
    I can't see 10% switchers from Android. I'm on other boards (non-tech) so they aren't fanboys and I've seen extremely few, if any, people who aren't very satisfied with their phone. Hardware can get people to switch, but I see Apple as always being a bit behind the curve. I think a 3G IPhone will get crushed in LTE markets, which is 1/3 of VZW customers and some 100M people total. I expect IPhone to lose at least a little share in those markets until it is LTE capable.

    Android has already taken a bunch of BB share, but the bulk of the remainder is entrenched corporate accounts. IPhone is probably better situated to capture more corporate accounts, but I don't think it's really there yet, either.

    We'll see, but I don't think there's this huge pent-up demand for a VZW IPhone (beyond dissatisfied AT&T customers). I think the IPhone will hold share on new subscribers, and that would be a real accomplishment because new subscribers at this point will increasingly be very value oriented. Most people in love with IPhone have long since gone to and tolerated AT&T. Most of the rest on VZW waiting for a good smartphone have gone with Android. I'll be surprised if the market comes close to doubling this year as predicted - $30 a month for data is still pretty steep, not to mention $200 and up for the phones. Pretty hefty expense for something almost entirely a convenience purchase and at some point, probably sooner rather than later, adoption rates are going to fall off a cliff.

    Heck, I'm not sure of the numbers on high speed home broadband, but well less than 50% OF HOMES. It's hard to imagine those people with value broadband plunking down $30 per phone for data. Maybe some light users will see LTE as a replacement alternative, and maybe some who don't have home internet will be swayed by the portability.

    It's easy to underestimate the willingness and ability of the US consumer to overextend themself, but I can't see a rational argument for how IPhone will come close to doubling it's installed base. A LOT more competition on VZW than it had on AT&T, not to mention bringing a 3G knife to an LTE gun fight.
  9. Senior Droid
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  10. dankarlinski
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    Quote Originally Posted by styx View Post
    No Flash! No Styx!

    seconded.


    although, a friend of mine has the iphone4. it runs flash, just a really crappy watered down version.

    thanks for flashing us, Adobe!
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