A supplier can't hide/ignore/lie about a significant sales order when they give guidance. They can be cryptic about the source/buyer, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to put 2 and 2 together. Like I said, though, once consensus becomes "fact" it would be tough to find an analyst risking his career to swim upstream without concrete proof to the contrary.
VZW wants the IPhone, Jobs has admitted waiting this long was a strategic mistake. And you have the IPad. So it's a near absolute certainty the IPhone is coming to VZW the only question is when.
That said, there is probably a number that works for both AT&T and Apple to extend the exclusivity agreement. But that is probably not in Apple's long-term interests and I think they recognize that.