Those same indicators point to China getting the iPhone. China runs CDMA.
Unless Apple takes a pay cut, Verizon isn't getting the iPhone. If Apple DOES take a paycut, the consumer will pay much more for the CDMA iPhone to cover the difference.
There are a lot of variables involved here and nothing is black and white. History suggests that an Apple/Verizon deal would be very difficult. They have a SEVERE clash of corporate culture (i.e. very much alike and both want to be dominant) that would significantly hinder such an alliance.