Sameer Singh, an analyst with mergers and acquisitions consulting group Finvista Advisors, recently made the bold (and in certain circles unpopular) prediction that the Apple iPad will lose its market dominance to Android in 2013. Part of the reason for his assessment stems from extrapolating current data outward into next year. For example, in the third quarter of 2010, the iPad had 87 percent of the market, according to IDC, yet, in Q3 of this year the iPad's marketshare has fallen to just 50.4 percent. In fact, Singh's study found that Android tablet shipments outpaced the iPad in six out of the last eight quarters. Here's a quote with a few more details,
If you couple this with the fact that Samsung is now charging Apple 20% more for their mobile processors than previously, (according to a report from BGR just yesterday), then you can foresee some rough times for Apple. Of course, the company is still one of the most profitable and cash-rich corporations on Earth, so there probably isn't too much cause for concern. Although most of us Android fans here in the forums could have made the same predictions, it's still nice to see someone within the industry put hard facts and numbers to the idea.The third quarter was an especially bad one for iPad sales given rumors of the upcoming iPad Mini and a drop in shipments due to the new iPads, Singh said. Based on past results, iPad shipments should have risen by 10 to 15 percent last quarter. Instead, they fell by 18 percent.
Android tablet shipments grew from the first quarter to the third quarter. And that growth will increase next year, according to the analyst, as more Android vendors take a cue from the low-cost Amazon Kindle.
"OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have learnt from Amazon's model that diversified price points would help expand the market and take share from the iPad," Singh said. "This has resulted in far more broad-based growth, which is not only sustainable, but should result in an accelerated ramp up of sales over the next three to four quarters."
Perhaps Apple should spend more of their cash and time on R&D for new technologies, instead of trying to fight in the court system...